The WoSo Independent Podcast – Episode #31 – NCAA Tournament Review + Dr. Offseason (Portland)

Chris and Jon return for Episode #31 of the WoSo Independent Podcast. They start off by talking about the College Cup to this point and discuss the four quarterfinals and who they favor in each (1:50). Afterward, they begin the much vaunted DR. OFFSEASON discussion by talking about the reigning NWSL champion Portland Thorns (25:59). How will the club cope with the offseason losses of Nadia Nadim & Amandine Henry? Where might be a priority to fill with the club’s two first round picks in January’s draft?

NCAA – 2017 NCAA Tournament Second Round Time Chart

All matches to take place on Friday. All times listed are EST.

2:00 PM – Tennessee vs Washington State
2:30 PM – (4) Princeton vs NC State
3:00 PM – Santa Clara vs Vanderbilt
4:00 PM – (3) Penn State vs Wake Forest
4:30 PM – (3) USC vs Baylor
5:00 PM – (1) North Carolina vs Colorado
5:00 PM – (4) Texas vs Clemson
6:00 PM – (1) South Carolina vs Wisconsin
6:00 PM – (3) Florida vs South Florida
7:00 PM – (2) West Virginia vs Rutgers
7:30 PM – (1) Duke vs Oklahoma State
7:30 PM – (4) Florida State vs Arizona
8:00 PM – (3) Virginia vs Pepperdine
8:30 PM – (2) Texas A&M vs Notre Dame
10:00 PM – (1) Stanford vs Auburn
11:00 PM – (2) UCLA vs Northwestern

The WoSo Independent Podcast – Episode #30 – A Bad Weekend in Orlando

Chris (@chris_awk) and Jon (@jonlipsitz) return for Episode #30 of the WoSo Independent Podcast and discuss the NWSL final in detail including the refereeing debacle. They bridge into a brief discussion on the USWNT call-up of McCall Zerboni, while Chris gives a name of a collegian he’d like to see tried out at full-back. They then discuss the calamitous NWSL final in terms of business, with disappointing live attendance and the abysmal television ratings and where that puts the league heading into 2018 and beyond. There’s talk of the league’s continued lack of a commissioner, and then some chatter about what Chris & Jon would like to see heading into next year out of the league.

NCAA – Round One Time/Day Chart

All times listed are EST. Numbers in brackets are RPI rank.

Friday

6:00 PM – (1) South Carolina [3] vs Alabama State [238]
6:00 PM – (3) Florida [19] vs South Alabama [59]
6:00 PM – (4) Ohio State [17] vs Vanderbilt [40]
6:00 PM – (4) Texas [12] vs North Texas [65]
6:00 PM – Auburn [27] vs Hofstra [22]
7:00 PM – (4) Princeton [9] vs Monmouth [37]
7:00 PM – (4) Florida State [16] vs Ole Miss [41]
7:00 PM – Clemson [38] vs Alabama [28]
7:00 PM – Wake Forest [43] vs Georgetown [24]
7:30 PM – (3) Penn State [10] vs Stony Brook [159]
8:00 PM – Baylor [34] vs Rice [36]
8:00 PM – Wisconsin [29] vs Toledo [124]
8:30 PM – (2) Texas A&M [6] vs Lamar [72]
9:00 PM – Arizona [26] vs TCU [46]
10:00 PM – (2) UCLA [8] vs San Diego State [80]

Saturday

1:00 PM – (1) North Carolina [2] vs High Point [98]
1:00 PM – (2) West Virginia [7] vs Bucknell [81]
1:00 PM – NC State [30] vs Arkansas [42]
1:00 PM – Oklahoma State [32] vs Missouri State [118]
1:00 PM – South Florida [15] vs Florida Gulf Coast [35]
3:00 PM – (3) USC [18] vs Eastern Washington [87]
4:00 PM – Pepperdine [13] vs Cal State Fullerton [94]
4:30 PM – Cal [25] vs Santa Clara [31]
5:00 PM – Rutgers [11] vs La Salle [47]
5:00 PM – Tennessee [20] vs Murray State [21]
7:00 PM – (1) Duke [4] vs UNC Greensboro [104]
7:00 PM – (2) UCF [5] vs Washington State [49]
7:00 PM – (3) Virginia [23] vs Saint Francis (PA) [177]
7:00 PM – Notre Dame [14] vs IUPUI [123]
10:00 PM – (1) Stanford [1] vs Utah Valley [213]

Sunday

2:00 PM – Colorado [44] vs Denver [225]
2:00 PM – Northwestern [33] vs Butler [45]

NCAA – 2017 NCAA Tournament – Chris’ Mock Bracket

I went full cheapskate mode (i.e. NCAA travel practices) with this bracket in all but a few places (see Butler not hosting Indiana in round one). Palo Alto Quadrant winner plays College Station Quadrant winner in Final Four, while Chapel Hill Quadrant winner does the same with Durham Quadrant winner.

Palo Alto Quadrant

[1] Stanford vs Utah Valley
Wisconsin vs Butler
[4] Pepperdine vs Arizona
Oklahoma State vs Arkansas

[2] UCLA vs San Diego State
Notre Dame vs Northwestern
[3] Ohio State vs Toledo
Cal vs Santa Clara

College Station Quadrant

[1] Texas A&M vs Lamar
Colorado vs Denver
[4] USC vs Cal State Fullerton
Texas vs North Texas

[2] UCF vs Alabama State
Alabama vs Baylor
[3] Florida vs South Alabama
Florida State vs Minnesota

Chapel Hill Quadrant

[1] North Carolina vs UNC Greensboro
Washington State vs Eastern Washington
[4] South Florida vs Florida Gulf Coast
Georgetown vs Wake Forest

[2] Penn State vs Bucknell
Princeton vs La Salle
[3] West Virginia vs Saint Francis (PA)
Hofstra vs Monmouth

Durham Quadrant

[1] Duke vs High Point
Auburn vs TCU
[4] Virginia vs IUPUI
Murray State vs Vanderbilt

[2] South Carolina vs Missouri State
NC State vs Cincinnati
[3] Rutgers vs Stony Brook
Tennessee vs Clemson

NCAA – Chris’ Final 2017 NCAA Tournament Field Projection

(Mock bracket to come later. With seeds.)

America East (1) – Stony Brook*
AAC (3) – UCF, South Florida*, Cincinnati
Atlantic 10 (1) – La Salle*
ACC (8) – North Carolina*, Duke, Notre Dame, Florida State, Virginia, NC State, Clemson, Wake Forest
Atlantic Sun (1) – Florida Gulf Coast*
Big 12 (5) – West Virginia, Texas, Oklahoma State, Baylor*, TCU
Big East (2) – Georgetown*, Butler
Big Sky (1) – Eastern Washington*
Big South (1) – High Point*
Big Ten (6) – Penn State*, Rutgers, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Minnesota
Big West (1) – Cal State Fullerton*
Colonial (1) – Hofstra*
Conference USA (1) – North Texas*
Horizon (1) – IUPUI*
Ivy (1) – Princeton*
MAAC (1) – Monmouth*
MAC (1) – Toledo*
MVC (1) – Missouri State*
Mountain West (1) – San Diego State*
NEC (1) – Saint Francis (PA)*
OVC (1) – Murray State*
Pac-12 (7) – Stanford*, UCLA, USC, Cal, Arizona, Colorado, Washington State
Patriot (1) – Bucknell*
SEC (8) – South Carolina, Texas A&M*, Florida, Tennessee, Auburn, Alabama, Vanderbilt, Arkansas
SoCon (1) – UNC Greensboro*
Southland (1) – Lamar*
SWAC (1) – Alabama State*
Summit (1) – Denver*
Sun Belt (1) – South Alabama*
WCC (2) – Pepperdine*, Santa Clara
WAC (1) – Utah Valley*

OUT (In order that I believe they’re out…)

Ole Miss – Above Colorado in terms of results against RPI Top 50 teams but don’t have head-to-head advantages against bubble rivals other than Memphis. Also could get dinged for very poor finish (one win in last eight)

Memphis – H2H loss with Ole Miss. Only RPI Top 50 win is against Rice, who is also out.

Mississippi State – No RPI Top 50 wins is pretty much an automatic disqualified. Bad loss at home against Kentucky. No head-to-head advantages against bubble rivals.

Saint Louis – RPI value (not rank) is lower than anyone who has gained an at-large bid. Otherwise, I think they’d have a real shot with wins over likely tournament teams Vanderbilt and Murray State.

Virginia Tech – RPI value (not rank) is lower than anyone who has gained an at-large bid. Good win at Notre Dame, draw vs Pepperdine. League position is lower than anyone with at-large bid in the past.

Rice – No RPI Top 50 wins despite draw with Baylor and strong RPI rank.

Boston College – Not enough RPI Top 50 wins (just one vs #43 Wake Forest) Lose H2H against bubble rival Vanderbilt, draw with bubble rival Virginia Tech.

Northeastern – H2H loss to Boston College. H2H win at TCU but doesn’t have enough in terms of RPI Top 50 results.

LSU – RPI value (not rank) is lower than anyone who has gained an at-large bid. No RPI Top 50 wins.

Marquette – No positive RPI Top 50 results.

NCAA – Chris’ Bracketology v7.5

I’ve added a few more models that rely on big wins only and keep draws out of the equation. Next update will be the final field projection Sunday evening.

Who the bracket models agree on:

America East – Stony Brook*
AAC – [2] UCF*, South Florida, Cincinnati
Atlantic 10 – La Salle*
ACC – [1] Duke*, [2] North Carolina, [4] Virginia, [4] Notre Dame, Florida State, NC State, Wake Forest
Atlantic Sun – Lipscomb*
Big 12 – [3] West Virginia, Texas, Oklahoma State, Baylor, TCU*
Big East – Georgetown*, Butler
Big Sky – Eastern Washington*
Big South – High Point*
Big Ten – [2] Penn State, [3] Ohio State, [4] Rutgers, Wisconsin, Northwestern*, Minnesota
Big West – Cal State Northridge*
CAA – Hofstra*
Conference USA – North Texas*
Horizon – Milwaukee*
Ivy – Princeton, Columbia*
MAAC – Monmouth*
MAC – Toledo*
MVC – Missouri State*
Mountain West – San Diego State*
NEC – Fairleigh Dickinson*
OVC – Murray State*
Pac-12 – [1] Stanford*, [2] UCLA, [3] USC, Arizona, Cal, Washington State
Patriot – Navy*
SEC – [1] South Carolina, [2] Texas A&M*, [3] Florida, Tennessee, Auburn, Alabama, Vanderbilt, Arkansas
SoCon – UNC Greensboro*
Southland – Lamar*
SWAC – Alabama State*
Summit – Denver*
Sun Belt – South Alabama*
WCC – [4] Pepperdine*
WAC – Utah Valley*

Chris’ Bubble Breakdown

IN (all models)

Northwestern (if needed), Oklahoma State, Vanderbilt (if TCU & Northwestern win auto bids, in three models otherwise), Baylor, Arkansas, Butler, Wake Forest, Minnesota, Washington State, Cincinnati

IN (two models of four)

Santa Clara, Clemson (also potentially in all four models depending on auto bids), Florida Gulf Coast (potentially just one model depending on auto bids), TCU, Virginia Tech

OUT (all models)

Rice, Monmouth (if they didn’t have MAAC auto bid), Ole Miss, Colorado, Mississippi State, Memphis, Boston College, Northeastern, Marquette, La Salle, LSU, San Jose State

NCAA – Chris’ Bracketology v7.0

Update through Monday matches. Next update: After Friday matches.

The following 63 teams are in both bracket models. There are red flags associated with both Virginia Tech and TCU though which were covered in the earlier Bubble Cheat Sheet column

America East – Stony Brook*
AAC – [2] UCF*, South Florida, Cincinnati
Atlantic 10 – La Salle*
ACC – [1] Duke*, [1] North Carolina, [4] Virginia, Notre Dame, Florida State, NC State, Clemson, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech
Atlantic Sun – Lipscomb*, Florida Gulf Coast
Big 12 – [2] West Virginia, [3] Texas, Oklahoma State*, TCU
Big East – Georgetown*, Butler
Big Sky – Eastern Washington*
Big South – High Point*
Big Ten – [3] Ohio State*, [3] Penn State, [4] Rutgers, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Minnesota
Big West – UC Irvine*
CAA – Hofstra*
C-USA – Rice*
Horizon – Milwaukee*
Ivy – Columbia*, Princeton
MAAC – Monmouth*
MAC – Kent State*
MVC – Drake*
Mountain West – San Jose State*
NEC – Fairleigh Dickinson*
OVC – Murray State*
Pac-12 – [1] Stanford*, [2] UCLA, [4] USC, Arizona, Cal, Washington State
Patriot – Navy*
SEC – [1] South Carolina*, [2] Texas A&M, [3] Florida, [4] Tennessee, Alabama, Auburn, Vanderbilt
SoCon – Furman*
Southland – Lamar*
SWAC – Alabama State*
Summit – South Dakota State*
Sun Belt – South Alabama*
WCC – Pepperdine*
WAC – UMKC*

Out Both Brackets

Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Memphis, Marquette, Arkansas, Boston College, Drexel, LSU, Baylor, Saint Louis, Northeastern

In Aggressive, Out Conservative

Colorado

In Conservative, Out Aggressive

Santa Clara

NCAA – Chris’ Infamous Annual Conference Tournament Week Bubble Cheat Sheet (v.2017)

According to past precedent, everyone in the RPI Top 28 is locked in at this point, while everyone below #62 needs an auto bid. Here’s assessing the chances of everyone in between…

29 – Murray State

Will they finish in the Top 30 if they lose in the OVC Tournament final? I’m skeptical. I think they’ll need the auto bid, especially with no RPI Top 50 results.

30 – Rice

Pretty much everything above said about Murray State applies for Rice too. Their draw against Baylor could turn into a Top 50 result, but it’s not going to count for much. They have a better shot at staying in the Top 30 though if they get to the C-USA Tournament final.

31 – Hofstra

Have a draw against Monmouth and wins against Drexel and Northeastern, who are edging closer to the RPI Top 50. Another team that could hop up into the RPI Top 30, but I suspect they need the auto bid.

32 – Santa Clara

I do think the Broncos will end up in the RPI Top 30 if they win at home to San Diego and BYU, with both of next week’s foes in the RPI Top 100. But all hell could break loose if SCU drops points to either. They have just one RPI Top 50 result all season, a win against Washington State, and even that could evaporate if WSU loses to Washington. It’d be best for the sanity of everyone at SCU to just take care of business next weekend.

33 – Georgetown

I suspect the Big East Tournament semi between the Hoyas and Marquette might be an elimination game. Georgetown looks like a Top 25 team on paper but has just the one win against the RPI Top 50…that coming against Marquette, with another win over the Golden Eagles potentially pushing them out of the RPI Top 50. The Hoyas do have a draw against Rutgers, though the Scarlet Knights are out of the Big Ten Tournament. I think GU will get the benefit of the doubt if they get to the Big East Tournament final, but a loss to Marquette could be trouble.

34 – Florida Gulf Coast

FGCU’s holding on to their win against Arizona on the road early in the season for dear life. It’s a better result than many of their bubble rivals’ best result, but FGCU just has that one going for them. They’ll get a long look if they don’t get the auto bid, but it’s best to just take care of business this week.

35 – Clemson

Wins over Auburn and Wake Forest, draws against Virginia and Florida State. Despite not making the ACC Tournament, the Tigers should have the resume to extend their season into the NCAA Tournament.

36 – Northwestern

Have won five in a row, including topping Purdue in the quarters of the Big Ten Tournament. Win at Ohio State, vs Wisconsin, vs Minnesota and a draw with Rutgers. With other teams on the bubble blowing chances left and right, the Wildcats have played their way into the field and potentially into a home game in the opening round.

37 – Colorado

Profile doesn’t look as awful as it once did, with wins over TCU and Washington State adding some much needed weight to their thin resume. But CU’s 0-5-1 against the RPI Top 40. Could the draw against Arizona push them over the top? Maybe, depending who’s on the bubble. But the Buffs really need to beat Utah to close out strong.

38 – Ole Miss

“How Not To Make A Final Impression” – The Rebels limped across the line with just one win in their final eight matches, losing to fellow bubble side Arkansas in the opening round of the SEC Tournament. Ole Miss has just a pair of RPI Top 50 wins, against Memphis and Arkansas, neither of whom are guaranteed to be in the Top 50 at week’s end. Draws against Auburn and Mississippi State could help, but it’s going to be a long week in Oxford.

39 – Vanderbilt

Needed results down the stretch and got them with wins over Tennessee and Auburn. It’s likely all gravy for the Dores at this point, as their quarterfinal against Tennessee isn’t going to damage their RPI if they lose. A win probably shifts the mindset towards thinking about hosting a first round game in the NCAAs.

40 – Wake Forest

For some reason, the RPI just doesn’t like the Demon Deacons. Wake has wins against South Carolina, Notre Dame, and Florida State, all in the RPI Top 20 but could be staring at the prospect of traveling for a first round game in the NCAA Tournament after dropping their ACC Tournament quarterfinal to Virginia. Regardless, it’d be a shock if Tony da Luz’s side didn’t make their NCAA return this year.
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NCAA – Chris’ Bracketology v6.5

There are a ton of issues with Virginia Tech’s candidacy, namely their W-L-T record and league finish in the ACC. But their positive results against RPI Top 50 teams is easily one of the best of anyone in bubble range. Will they stay on the final bracket? We’ll see…

Teams In Both Brackets (61)

AAC – [2] UCF*, South Florida, Cincinnati
America East – New Hampshire*
Atlantic 10 – La Salle*
ACC – [1] Duke*, [1] North Carolina, [3] Notre Dame, Florida State, Virginia, NC State, Clemson, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech
Atlantic Sun – Lipscomb*
Big 12 – [2] West Virginia, [2] Texas, Oklahoma State*, TCU
Big East – Georgetown*, Butler
Big Sky – Eastern Washington*
Big South – High Point*
Big Ten – [3] Ohio State*, [4] Penn State, Rutgers, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Northwestern
Big West – Cal State Northridge*
CAA – Hofstra*
C-USA – Rice*
Horizon – Milwaukee*
Ivy – Princeton, Columbia*
MAAC – Monmouth*
MAC – Kent State*
Missouri Valley – Drake*
Mountain West – San Jose State*
NEC – Central Connecitcut State*
OVC – Murray State*
Pac-12 – [1] Stanford*, [3] USC, [3] UCLA, Cal, Arizona, Washington State
Patriot – Navy*
SEC – [1] South Carolina*, [2] Texas A&M, [4] Florida, Tennessee, Alabama, Auburn
SoCon – Furman*
Southland – Lamar*
Summit – South Dakota State*
Sun Belt – South Alabama*
SWAC – Alabama State*
WAC – UMKC*
WCC – [4] Pepperdine*

Conservative Bracket IN, Aggressive Bracket OUT – Santa Clara, Ole Miss, Florida Gulf Coast

Aggressive Bracket IN, Conservative Bracket OUT – Vanderbilt, LSU, Purdue

OUT in Both Brackets – Washington, Colorado, Mississippi State, Saint Louis, Memphis, Drexel, Marquette, Baylor, Boston College