Welcome to the first edition of Bubble Watch. Or really, the first of two no-frills editions of Bubble Watch. These classifications are based on Chris Thomas’ study of the RPI and field selection for the NCAA Tournament in recent years. Every week, the prospective at-large field is going to shrink according to past precedent and who really has a shot at getting an at-large bid.
Teams noted as “locks” right now are in position from which nobody’s missed an NCAA Tournament in the past. Teams on the “bubble” could go either way. Teams in “danger” status will be eliminated from the Bubble Watch if in their current position come next week.
There are going to be a LOT of teams on this watch for the next few weeks, so until the third update, I’m just going to be providing the list before breaking things down further with the first big cut of the season.
Bubble – UCF, UConn, Tulsa, Temple, South Florida, Memphis, East Carolina, Cincinnati
Bubble (Danger) – SMU
Bubble (Danger) – UMBC, Hartford
Bubble – Rhode Island, La Salle, George Washington, Saint Joseph’s, VCU, Dayton
Bubble (Danger) – Richmond
Lock – North Carolina, Florida State, Virginia Tech
Bubble – Notre Dame, Virginia, Clemson, Boston College, Duke, Louisville, Wake Forest, Syracuse