NCAA – Non-Conference Review – Pac-12

RPI Rank After Sunday Listed in Parentheses.

Best uRPI Non-Conference Win

7 – UCLA (Notre Dame)
8 – Stanford (Santa Clara)
35 – Colorado (Colorado College)
47 – Utah (Utah State)
51 – Cal (UC Irvine)
51 – Washington State (UC Irvine)
57 – Arizona State (Illinois)
95 – Washington (Seattle)
99 – Oregon (Texas)
99 – Oregon State (Texas)
103 – USC (San Diego)
130 – Arizona (Hawaii)

Average uRPI Non-Conference Win

73.0 – Stanford
98.3 – UCLA
112.8 – Arizona State
118.5 – Utah
135.5 – Colorado
137.5 – Oregon
144.4 – Washington State
152.2 – USC
152.5 – Oregon State
163.8 – Washington
175.5 – Cal
211.0 – Arizona

(6) Stanford

There are a couple of wins lagging in the RPI that are keeping Stanford from the top few spots in the RPI rankings, but the Card definitely have one of the nation’s best profiles thus far. Stanford has wins over four uRPI Top 40 teams so far and a draw with uRPI #24 Portland. A #1 seed should be in sight if they keep winning in the league, and a high national seed should be in the bag if they don’t fall on their face.

(11) UCLA

I think the Bruins are being underrated a bit in the RPI, probably because an awful Northeastern side is dragging their RPI right now. The wins over Marquette, Duke, and Pepperdine all have a lot of upside going forward, and of course, this is a side with the potential to win the Pac-12. I think if they finish in the top two of the league, they’ll walk away with a #1 seed, even with the competition from the glut of ACC sides. Regardless, I still think the Bruins are looking very good for a top two seed at worst.

(22) Washington State

You could probably ask for a little more as far as the RPI is concerned considering this is a club that hasn’t lost in nine games, but with that non-conference schedule, what are you going to do? The draw against Oklahoma State could be big down the line if the club’s league form is erratic, but they’ll be hoping Cal State Fullerton and UC Irvine can do the business in the Big West. I think they’ll be fine if they finish in the top half of the Pac-12, but it might be an uphill climb to a national seed.

(30) Colorado

No bad losses is a good sign. That their best win is over Colorado College is not. The Buffs are really a club in need of an upset or two over the top tier of the Pac-12 to grab a significant result to be able to boast about on their profile. If they beat the teams they’re supposed to, I think they’ll be fine. But honestly, it’s probably in their best interest to get that one big result to feel safe come November.

(41) Arizona State

I think the Sun Devils’ losses to Texas A&M and Texas Tech aren’t going to look as bad RPI-wise, as I figure both are going to do pretty well in their respective leagues and climb up the rankings as the weeks go by. In reality, I think ASU’s losses have more “upside” than their wins. Stephen F. Austin probably isn’t going to be climbing much higher, while I’m not sure how much further Illinois’ going to go up either. To avoid another tense Monday, ASU probably needs a top half finish in the league. Maybe a little more.

(45) Cal

Cal’s win profile is pretty bad on the whole, with little to talk about other than their win over UC Irvine at the beginning of the season. The draw against Santa Clara might be their meal ticket to the NCAA Tournament though, as long as they end up on the bubble. The draw against Pepperdine also looks good on paper, though the Golden Bears have enough talent on paper to challenge for a national seed. To get there though, they’ll probably need a lot of wins in Pac-12 play.

(54) Utah

That’s a lot of draws. Unfortunately for the Utes, I’m not sure that beyond the one against Kentucky, they’ll be of much help to them in their quest for an at-large bid. The wins aren’t exactly going to be of much help either, I don’t think unless Utah State can pick it back up in Mountain West play. The draw against Kentucky might be enough to get them in if UK does really well in the SEC, but the Utes probably need more on their profile from Pac-12 play.

(65) Arizona

The draws are good, the wins are not for a much improved Arizona side. The Wildcats’ 0-0 result at Ohio State will look pretty good if OSU can have a decent year in the Big Ten, while you can probably say the same about Illinois. Still, the Wildcats are in an RPI position where they might need at least .500 in the league to get to the bubble. Arizona’s made positive strides in Tony Amato’s first season at the club, but you wonder if that might be beyond them this year.

(77) Washington

The Huskies made about as bad a start as you could to the new season, but they’re still standing in the RPI, thanks to none of their losses looking particularly bad. Boise State might backpedal a bit, but on the whole, they might be able to claw their way back into at-large contention if they can turn it around in the league. There’s still a great non-conference opportunity left with Portland on Sunday too. UW’s at .500 though, meaning they’ll need to do pretty well in the league to just be eligible for an at-large bid.

(92) USC

Thing suddenly don’t look so sunny for USC. The three wins to open up the season don’t look like they’re going to add much weight to the Trojans’ non-conference profile, while the overall set of wins for the club has not impressed the computers. Ironically, the draw with Ole Miss may be their saving grace if the Rebels have a great SEC campaign. More than anything though, the Women of Troy look like needing their fair share of wins in the Pac-12 to avoid another postseason-less season.

(106) Oregon

The draw with BYU helps, while the win over Texas might do likewise if the Horns can be a Big XII contender. Otherwise, Oregon’s got a bunch of losses and few wins, with their 2-4-2 record in particular seeming like the likeliest stumbling block to a shock at-large bid. They’d probably need something in the top third of the league to get an NCAA Tournament chance, so it’s probably not happening.

(146) Oregon State

It’s all gone horribly wrong for the Beavers. The draw with Wisconsin will help if the club can get on the bubble, but that looks an almost impossible task at this point. First of all, the club needs to get to .500, which at four games under right now, is going to be brutally difficult, with the team able to lose no more than three games in the league. If OSU can pull that off, they’d probably be in the mix for an at-large bid, but there’s little indication this year’s side is capable of it.

Preseason Predicted Finish

2. Stanford
3. Cal
4. Washington State
5. Washington
6. USC
7. Arizona State
8. Oregon State
9. Utah
10. Colorado
11. Arizona
12. Oregon

Post Non-Conference Predicted Finish

2. Stanford
3. Cal
4. Washington State
5. Arizona State
6. USC
7. Colorado
8. Washington
9. Arizona
10. Utah
11. Oregon State
12. Oregon

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