NCAA – Non-Conference Review – Big XII

RPI Rank After Sunday Listed in Parentheses.

Best uRPI Non-Conference Win

13 – Texas (Georgia)
23 – TCU (Arkansas)
41 – Texas Tech (Arizona State)
60 – Baylor (Boise State)
67 – West Virginia (Syracuse)
75 – Oklahoma (Oral Roberts)
88 – Oklahoma State (Oklahoma)
113 – Kansas (Purdue)
180 – Iowa State (Saint Louis)

Average uRPI Non-Conference Win

135.7 – Texas Tech
154.6 – Oklahoma
156.1 – Baylor
158.0 – Oklahoma State
159.6 – Texas
174.5 – West Virginia
183.8 – TCU
196.8 – Kansas
254.6 – Iowa State

(32) Texas Tech

No bad losses and lots of wins, but the computers seem to still be lukewarm on the Red Raiders. There’s a lot of wins over bad clubs on the slate, though the Arizona State win could increase in value as the season goes on. But the rest of their non-conference profile has little upside, and the club still has an RPI killing game against Arkansas-Pine Bluff as well. I’m guessing TTU will do well enough in the Big XII to make it into the NCAA Tournament with ease, but a national seed might be harder to come by.

(33) Oklahoma State

The draw against Florida State is their ticket into the Big Dance, though obviously the draw against Washington State helps too. OSU would have to underachieve greatly in the league to fall off the bubble, and the challenge now might be to perform well enough to get into the national seed discussion. With four opponents out of the uRPI Top 100 to come though, OSU might have to win most or all of its games to climb significantly higher in the rankings.

(34) Baylor

The draw against McNeese State probably helps the Southland side more than it hurts the Bears, but Baylor still has a lot of work to do to climb the ladder. Despite the lack of losses, the profile still looks pretty hollow, and the club is going to be very dependent upon the likes of Texas A&M, Missouri, and Washington to improve in the computers in league play. They should be fine if they take care of business in the league, but a national seed is going to take a lot of work.

(86) West Virginia

It seems like we’re always going through the same song and dance with West Virginia, who spin their wheels a bit early despite one or two eye-popping results and who usually finish the regular season with a flourish. It looks to be that way again this year, as the club that has drawn with Penn State and Duke would appear to have a profile problem with their lack of quality wins. The only team they’ve beaten in the uRPI Top 140 right now is Syracuse. Duke improving might bump them up a bit, but a national seed may already be out of reach. Beyond that, there’s also still work to be done to just get onto the bubble, where they should be safe with their non-conference results.

(88) Oklahoma

For a 3-6-1 team, their ranking’s not that bad. Yeah, they also have to get to .500 though. With nine games left, that’s not going to be a walk in the park either. They can’t lose more than three games, though six wins might be enough to at least get them close to the tail end of the bubble. Inevitably, it might be a “what-if” season, as the Sooners would be in a lot stronger of a position if they hadn’t coughed up a late lead at BYU. Getting above mid-table in the Big XII is probably beyond them, making an at-large bid very unlikely.

(96) Texas

After looking semi-shambles early on, Texas has pulled themselves together with five wins in six. Wildly enough, the Horns also might have the league’s best win thus far, a 2-0 opening night victory against high-flyers Georgia that could be their NCAA Tournament ticket. Texas’ problem is that the computer doesn’t really respect the rest of their profile, and you wonder if the draw against South Florida and win over Samford are going to look any better come season’s end. The Horns should be fine if they get on the bubble, but they’re going to need a lot of wins to get there.

(102) Kansas

KU’s been immensely disappointing this season, and it’s hard to see their non-conference profile getting appreciably better unless Purdue and Illinois State get it together in league play. The defeats to San Diego and San Francisco might be a final nail in the club’s at-large bid coffin, though there’s one final, unlikely non-conference opportunity in front of them with a visit to Santa Clara this weekend. If they can’t get anything out of that though, it’s hard seeing the Jayhawks climbing into the at-large picture.

(111) Iowa State

Iowa State’s non-conference profile is absolutely laughable, and it might be a minor miracle that they’re this high in the RPI, though their only real questionable non-conference loss was at Iowa. Still, ISU has no profile whatsoever to speak of and would have to finish near the top of the Big XII to stand a chance at an at-large bid. So, yeah, probably not happening.

(126) TCU

OK, first of all, TCU’s at .500, meaning they can’t lose more than five games in the league. The victory over Arkansas and draws against LSU and Denver certainly work in their favor if those clubs keep it together/get better, but it’s not going to matter a bit if the Horned Frogs don’t make massive gains in the RPI. Considering the Big XII on the whole isn’t looking so hot from an RPI perspective, I’m dubious about their odds of a run towards the bubble.

Preseason Predicted Finish

1. Texas Tech
2. West Virginia
3. Kansas
4. Baylor
5. Texas
6. Oklahoma State
7. TCU
8. Iowa State

9. Oklahoma

Post Non-Conference Predicted Finish

1. Texas Tech
2. West Virginia
3. Baylor
4. Oklahoma State
5. Texas
6. Kansas
7. TCU
8. Oklahoma

9. Iowa State

One thought on “NCAA – Non-Conference Review – Big XII

  1. mmbop

    Easily the worst of the five “Major” conferences, it is surprising that with the amount of funding available – and the pool of Texas prep talent – that no more than two of these teams should get into the Tourney. If more do (especially with RPIs below 45) it continues to show the crazy bias the selection committee has towards the big money leagues.

    Reply

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