NCAA – Weighted Total Shot Ratio – Week 3

Since the last update, I came up with a little bit of a brainstorm and decided to combine the Total Shot Ratio and “True” Total Shot Ratio numbers to come up with a single number: Weighted Total Shot Ratio, which essentially counts the on-target shot ratio twice. It’s got a minimum of 0.00 and a maximum of 2.00.

I’d argue that the only numbers that are really representative at the moment are the Big Ten’s, just because the sample size for the other leagues isn’t that big right now. I’ve excluded the Pac-12 for this week, since they’ve played just one league game. As always though, take this with a grain of salt, as until more matches are played, strength of schedule factors may skew things a bit.

AAC

1.30 – UCF
1.23 – Cincinnati
1.07 – Houston
1.07 – Memphis
1.03 – East Carolina
1.00 – UConn
0.93 – SMU
0.92 – South Florida
0.71 – Temple
0.68 – Tulsa

No surprise that UCF is top at the moment, but Cincinnati being #2 is a bit of a surprise, thought perhaps not so with their destruction of UConn. The Huskies, USF, and Tulsa, all at-large contenders had bad Sundays, which is reflected in these numbers.

ACC

1.56 – Virginia
1.51 – Florida State
1.47 – Duke
1.28 – North Carolina
1.15 – Clemson
1.11 – Virginia Tech
0.91 – Notre Dame
0.90 – Miami (FL)
0.83 – Syracuse
0.75 – Pittsburgh
0.71 – Louisville
0.70 – Wake Forest
0.67 – Boston College
0.48 – NC State

Strength of schedule factors have the top three so highly rated, and I’d expect things to normalize a bit when some more matches get played. Wake Forest and Boston College, so impressive for so long, have both struggled thus far. It’ll be interesting to see if they can improve in the final month of the regular season.

Big XII

1.46 – Baylor
1.39 – West Virginia
1.12 – Oklahoma State
0.97 – Texas Tech
0.94 – Texas
0.75 – Kansas
0.73 – TCU
0.71 – Iowa State

Hard to make concrete judgments when Oklahoma hasn’t even played a match yet, but early returns are promising for at-large hunting Baylor and Oklahoma State. Kansas has played better than their WTSR thus far, but you get the feeling it may catch up to them if they maintain their current level.

Big East

1.68 – Butler
1.40 – Marquette
1.35 – DePaul
1.23 – Saint John’s (NY)
0.96 – Georgetown
0.91 – Providence
0.82 – Creighton
0.65 – Seton Hall
0.45 – Villanova
0.45 – Xavier

Butler are runaway leaders at this point despite being just 1-1 in the league right now. Everything else is pretty much as you’d expect, though Georgetown riding under 1.00 is a bit surprising.

Big Ten

1.54 – Penn State
1.26 – Rutgers
1.21 – Illinois
1.20 – Minnesota
1.14 – Wisconsin
1.09 – Maryland
1.05 – Michigan
1.01 – Nebraska
0.89 – Ohio State
0.86 – Northwestern
0.84 – Iowa
0.77 – Purdue
0.67 – Michigan State
0.59 – Indiana

We’re approaching the halfway point, making these the most accurate numbers, roughly speaking. Penn State is just crushing teams at this point. The gap between them and #2 Rutgers is greater than the gap from Rutgers to #8 Nebraska. The above seems to indicate the Scarlet Knights are a bit undervalued, while Michigan may be overvalued. Last place Northwestern also appears to be playing better than the record, along with Nebraska, though Iowa may be a bit lucky to be so high up in the standings.

SEC

1.62 – Texas A&M
1.42 – Kentucky
1.20 – Florida
1.11 – South Carolina
1.08 – Arkansas
1.05 – Georgia
1.03 – Missouri
0.98 – Tennessee
0.94 – Vanderbilt
0.91 – Alabama
0.91 – Ole Miss
0.89 – Auburn
0.52 – LSU
0.35 – Mississippi State

This probably looks how most expected it would at the beginning of the season, with the exception of Kentucky being so highly ranked, though I suspect the Wildcats will come back down to Earth a bit with some harder games ahead. The bigger story may be the bottom two. LSU (for being #13 thus far) and Mississippi State (for almost being improbably bad so far).

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