NCAA – Chris’ Final 2018 Mock NCAA Tournament Bracket

Well, I did my best. Seeding looks to be volatile this year, with some weird first round matchups likely thanks to a glut of ACC and SEC teams.

In College Cup for these brackets, Stanford Quadrant winner would play Georgetown Quadrant winner, with Florida State Quadrant winner playing North Carolina Quadrant winner.

Stanford Quadrant

Palo Alto Regional

[1] Stanford vs Seattle
NC State vs Mississippi State
[4] Penn State vs Albany
Washington State vs Montana

Los Angeles Regional

[2] USC vs Pepperdine
Auburn vs Wake Forest
[3] Texas vs Denver
Arizona vs BYU

Florida State Quadrant

Tallahassee Regional

[1] Florida State vs Murray State
Kansas vs Saint Louis
[4] Texas A&M vs Abilene Christian
South Florida vs Minnesota

Westwood Regional

[2] UCLA vs Long Beach State
Arkansas vs Texas Tech
[3] Santa Clara vs San Jose State
South Carolina vs Clemson

North Carolina Quadrant

Chapel Hill Regional

[1] North Carolina vs Radford
Memphis vs Ole Miss
[4] Vanderbilt vs Lipscomb
Louisville vs Butler

Waco Regional

[2] Baylor vs Little Rock
LSU vs Virginia Tech
[3] Tennessee vs Loyola Chicago
TCU vs North Texas

Georgetown Quadrant

Washington DC Regional

[1] Georgetown vs Howard
Hofstra vs Central Connecticut State
[4] Virginia vs Monmouth
Princeton vs Rutgers

Morgantown Regional

[2] West Virginia vs Bowling Green
Boston College vs Boston University
[3] Duke vs UNC Greensboro
Illinois vs Milwaukee

NCAA – Chris’ Final 2018 NCAA Tournament Field of Sixty-Four Projection

Note: I have NOT calculated seeds yet. That will be coming with the mock bracket.

America East – Albany*
AAC – Memphis*, South Florida
Atlantic 10 – Saint Louis*
ACC – Florida State*, North Carolina, Duke, Virginia, NC State, Boston College, Clemson, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Louisville
A-Sun – Lipscomb*
Big 12 – West Virginia*, Baylor, Texas, TCU, Kansas, Texas Tech
Big East – Georgetown*, Butler
Big Sky – Montana*
Big South – Radford*
Big Ten – Minnesota*, Penn State, Rutgers, Illinois
Big West – Long Beach State*
CAA – Hofstra*
C-USA – North Texas*
Horizon – Milwaukee*
Ivy – Princeton*
MAAC – Monmouth*
MAC – Bowling Green*
MVC – Loyola (Ill.)*
Mountain West – San Jose State*
NEC – Central Connecticut State*
OVC – Murray State*
Pac-12 – Stanford*, USC, UCLA, Arizona, Washington State
Patriot – Boston University*
SEC – LSU*, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Auburn, Ole Miss
SoCon – UNC Greensboro*
Southland – Abilene Christian*
SWAC – Howard*
Summit – Denver*
Sun Belt – Little Rock*
WCC – BYU*, Santa Clara, Pepperdine
WAC – Seattle*

Last IN – Pepperdine, Louisville, Butler, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech
Last OUT – Wisconsin, Northwestern, Ohio State, Colorado

NCAA – Chris’ 2018 NCAA Tournament Bracket Projection v12 (Through 11/2 Matches)

America East – Albany*
AAC – [3] South Florida*, Memphis
Atlantic 10 – Saint Louis*
ACC – [1] North Carolina*, [2] Florida State, [4] Duke, Virginia, NC State, Boston College, Wake Forest, Clemson, Virginia Tech
A-Sun – Lipscomb*
Big 12 – [1] Baylor*, [2] West Virginia, [3] Texas, TCU, Kansas, Texas Tech
Big East – [1] Georgetown*, Butler
Big Sky – Northern Colorado*
Big South – Radford*
Big Ten – [4] Penn State*, Rutgers, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Illinois
Big West – Long Beach State*
CAA – James Madison*
C-USA – North Texas*
Horizon – Milwaukee*
Ivy – Penn*
MAAC – Monmouth*
MAC – Bowling Green*
MVC – Loyola (Ill.)*
Mountain West – New Mexico*
NEC – Central Connecticut State*
OVC – Tennessee-Martin*
Pac-12 – [1] Stanford*, [2] USC, [2] UCLA, Arizona, Washington State
Patriot – Boston University*
SEC – Arkansas*, [4] Tennessee, [4] Texas A&M, Mississippi State, South Carolina, [3] Vanderbilt, LSU, Auburn, Ole Miss
SoCon – UNC Greensboro*
Southland – Abilene Christian*
SWAC – Grambling*
Summit – Denver*
Sun Belt – Texas State*
WCC – BYU*, [3] Santa Clara, Pepperdine
WAC – UMKC*

Last Five IN – Butler, Virginia Tech, Illinois, Pepperdine, Washington State
Last Five OUT – Princeton, VCU, Louisville, Colorado, Arizona State

NCAA – Chris’ 2018 NCAA Tournament Bracket Projection v11 (Through 10/28 Matches)

America East – Albany*
AAC – [4] South Florida*, Memphis
Atlantic 10 – Saint Louis*, George Mason
ACC – [1] North Carolina*, [4] Florida State, [3] Duke, [3] Virginia, NC State, Boston College, Wake Forest, Clemson, Virginia Tech, Louisville
A-Sun – Lipscomb*
Big 12 – [1] Baylor*, [4] Texas, [2] West Virginia, TCU, Kansas, Texas Tech
Big East – [1] Georgetown*
Big Sky – Weber State*
Big South – Radford*
Big Ten – Penn State*, Rutgers, Illinois, Ohio State
Big West – Long Beach State*
CAA – James Madison*
C-USA – North Texas*
Horizon – Milwaukee*
Ivy – Penn*
MAAC – Monmouth*
MAC – Bowling Green*
MVC – Loyola (Ill.)*
Mountain West – Boise State*
NEC – Central Connecticut State*
OVC – Tennessee-Martin*
Pac-12 – [1] Stanford*, [2] USC, [3] UCLA, Arizona, Colorado, Washington State
Patriot – Boston University*
SEC – [3] Vanderbilt*, [2] Tennessee, [4] Texas A&M, South Carolina, Mississippi State, Auburn, Arkansas, LSU, Ole Miss
SoCon – Samford*
Southland – Central Arkansas*
SWAC – Grambling*
Summit – South Dakota State*
Sun Belt – Texas State*
WCC – BYU*, [2] Santa Clara
WAC – UMKC*

The Bubble

Tier A – Most Likely IN

LSU
Texas Tech
Clemson
Ole Miss

Tier B – Less Certain, But IN For The Moment

Virginia Tech
Illinois
Colorado
Washington State
Ohio State
Louisville

Tier C – Less Certain, But OUT For The Moment

Arizona State
Nebraska
Wisconsin

Tier D – Most Likely OUT, But Some Hope

Pepperdine
Minnesota
Butler

Tier E – Almost Assuredly OUT

Princeton
Providence
Oklahoma State
Northwestern

2018 U20 Women’s World Cup – Run The Numbers – United States 6 – 0 Paraguay

The United States rebounded from opening day defeat to Japan with an emphatic 6-0 victory against an outclassed Paraguay side in the second set of group stage matches at the U20 World Cup.

[L] United States vs [R] Paraguay stats

[L] United States vs [R] Paraguay stats

Shots - United States (blue) vs Paraguay (red)

Shots – United States (blue) vs Paraguay (red)

Key Passes - United States (blue) vs Paraguay (red)

Key Passes – United States (blue) vs Paraguay (red)

Woman of the Match – Savannah DeMelo (USA)

3 goals
6 shots
1 key pass
7 challenges won
3 aerial challenges won
3 tackles
4 ball recoveries

The American attack decimated Paraguay’s defense all match long, and it was attacking midfielder DeMelo who profited most for the winners. DeMelo was simply undeniable for the Americans in combining with Sophia Smith and netting a hat trick while also doing some of the hard work and winning seven challenges, including a trio of tackles won. This was a strong rebound from a poor performance in the U.S.’ opener in the competition.

DeMelo shots

DeMelo shots

DeMelo challenges won

DeMelo challenges won

Continue reading

NCAA – Chris’ Infamous Conference Tournament Week Bubble Cheat Sheet [v.2018]

What does my team need to get into the NCAA Tournament? It’s a common question at this time of year. So I’m looking into my crystal ball for everyone still technically on the “bubble” as of the last RPI report. Again, these are all semi-educated guesses with chaos likely for the next week…

#26 – Rutgers

Don’t have a great matchup in the Big Ten Tournament, but they’ve got enough to survive any bubble scrutiny given H2H bubble results.

#27 – Princeton

They probably won’t be this high in another few hours as Cornell bombs their RPI, even with a win. I think they need the auto bid.

#28 – Penn State

See above with Rutgers, but Penn State has even better meaningful results.

#29 – Wake Forest

I don’t see how they don’t get in if they’re in the RPI Top 30 with a draw against Tennessee and wins against Penn State, Boston College, and NC State among others. But they have a lot of factors working against them: poor league finish, poor end-of-season form, .500 record. No matter what happens, someone will be mad.

#30 – North Texas

I can’t see them being able to absorb a loss RPI-wise, so they probably need the auto bid.

#31 – Arkansas

Strong results and desirable matchup in SEC Tournament. They’re good.

#32 – Texas Tech

High RPI, solid bubble H2H results, and decent big results. Losing to TCU probably won’t move the needle too much. I think they’re in.

#33 – LSU

Tigers look in solid shape with bubble H2H results and some huge wins down the stretch. Losing to Missouri could hurt, but I don’t think it’ll hurt enough to push them out.

#34 – Arizona State

ASU’s non-conference schedule is hanging over them in a bad way. I suspect they need two wins in their last three.

#35 – Ohio State

Their work against fellow bubble teams is probably going to see them through. It’s a good thing too, as their profile of big wins isn’t much to write home about. Beating Nebraska would basically wrap things up.

#36 – Wisconsin

I’m really on the fence with them. They have momentum and a strong league finish, but their big results profile is abysmal. Illinois getting in over them is going to rub people wrong in Madison, but the Badgers could probably flip the script by beating them again in the Big Ten Tournament. I still think though they might need two wins instead of just one.

#37 – Colorado

Their non-conference profile might one of the worst for a Power Five conference bubble contender in ages. CU essentially has one meaningful win all season, that coming against Washington State in Pac-12 play. I think they have to beat UCLA to stand a chance. If they get in without that, it’s hard to argue with a straight face that they did so on their resume. Continue reading

NCAA – Chris’ 2018 NCAA Tournament Bracket Projection v10 (Through 10/26 Matches)

(With this update, I’m using a bigger combination of factors and intuition in picking the bubble teams. I’ve tried to separate teams into five tiers to show what I’m thinking.)

America East – Stony Brook*
AAC – [4] South Florida*, Memphis
Atlantic 10 – Saint Louis*
ACC – [1] North Carolina*, [3] Duke, [4] Florida State, [3] Virginia, Boston College, NC State, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Louisville
A-Sun – Lipscomb*
Big 12 – [1] Baylor*, [4] Texas, [3] West Virginia, TCU, Kansas, Texas Tech
Big East – [2] Georgetown*
Big Sky – Weber State*
Big South – Radford*
Big Ten – Penn State*, Rutgers, Ohio State, Illinois
Big West – UC Irvine*
CAA – James Madison*
C-USA – North Texas*
Horizon – Milwaukee*
Ivy – Penn*, Princeton
MAAC – Monmouth*
MAC – Bowling Green*
MVC – Loyola (Ill.)*
Mountain West – Boise State*
NEC – Central Connecticut State*
OVC – Tennessee-Martin*
Pac-12 – [1] Stanford*, [2] USC, [3] UCLA, Arizona, Colorado
Patriot – Colgate*
SEC – [2] Vanderbilt*, [4] Texas A&M, [2] Tennessee, South Carolina, Mississippi State, Auburn, Arkansas, LSU, Ole Miss
SoCon – Samford*
Southland – Central Arkansas*
SWAC – Grambling*
Summit – South Dakota State*
Sun Belt – Texas State*
WCC – BYU*, [1] Santa Clara
WAC – UMKC*

Bubble Tier A – Almost Assuredly In

Ohio State, Texas Tech, LSU

Bubble Tier B – Toss-up But In

Illinois, Ole Miss, Virginia Tech, Colorado, Louisville

Bubble Tier C – Toss-Up But Out

Wisconsin, Nebraska

Bubble Tier D – Just A Glimmer Of Hope But Out

Pepperdine, Arizona State, Northwestern, Butler, Washington State

Bubble Tier E – Almost Assuredly Out

George Mason, Long Beach State, Providence, Oklahoma State, Alabama

NCAA – FINAL 2018 Bubble Watch – V5.0

Bubble cheat sheet coming before Sunday. Rapid updates on Twitter (@chris_awk) all throughout next week.

AAC

Lock – Memphis, South Florida

Sometimes surviving the bubble and moving up means just taking care of business. And outside of a bizarre stumble at Temple, South Florida’s done that and then some in moving to the brink of an outright AAC title. With wins over Baylor and Memphis, the Bulls are now much closer to a national seed than the bubble.

Memphis remains in solid RPI shape, but they might need to win the AAC Tournament to get a look as a seed contender.

Atlantic 10

Bubble – George Mason, Saint Louis

George Mason capped off the regular season with two more wins last weekend, sending them into the A10 Tournament on a five match winning streak. GMU didn’t play league champs Saint Louis in the regular season and could be well poised to cause a seismic shock against the runaway league champs. SLU ran the table in the A10 and have now won eleven in a row entering the postseason. Two of their three losses are against formidable Power Five conference opponents Kansas and Vanderbilt, with the Billikens a potentially interesting pick for being an upset sleeper if they can claim the A10’s auto bid.

ACC

Lock – North Carolina, Florida State, Duke, Virginia, Boston College, NC State
Bubble – Wake Forest, Louisville, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Notre Dame

No change in the locks going into this week. It’s there that things get pretty interesting. Wake Forest will likely finish at .500 if they can’t upset North Carolina in the regular season finale. That likely knocks them from the ACC Tournament, with both factors serving as big negatives against a potential NCAA bid. But the Demon Deacons’ RPI itself is solid, and they have four wins against RPI Top 50 teams and a draw against Tennessee. They could be one of the more polarizing teams on Selection Monday.

Elsewhere, Louisville’s case is strengthening, with a win over NC State adding a little more weight to the one area where they had been lacking: big wins. The Cards are in a solid place in the ACC and have a very good RPI ranking. Virginia Tech could be sweating, sitting at 8-6-3 and potentially missing the ACC Tournament. They have just one RPI Top 50 win, that coming against Virginia, though they also have a tie with Georgetown. A loss to Louisville on Thursday could be fatal to their NCAA hopes if things don’t break their way. Clemson has a sagging RPI ranking but have wins over Virginia and Florida State, so it’s hard to see them not get in if they’re in bubble range. Notre Dame is alive but with big caveats. The Irish have to beat Duke to get back to .500, a win that would give them three against RPI Top 30 teams. But they’d also have to avoid a loss in the ACC Tournament (if they qualify), that would drop them back under .500.

Big 12

Lock – Baylor, Texas, West Virginia, TCU
Bubble – Kansas, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech

Just a couple changes in status for the Big 12. TCU climbs up to the lock line after topping Texas Tech, while Oklahoma finally drops off the watch after a heavy defeat to West Virginia. Others? Kansas looks to be buckling under the weight of a brutal run-in with three straight away games against the league’s best teams. An earlier win over TCU should help its case…but the Jayhawks probably want to avoid an early Big 12 Tournament exit just in case. Their situation isn’t as dire as Oklahoma State, who took an awful loss to Iowa State on Sunday and could miss the Big 12 Tournament if they lose to TCU and ISU wins against Kansas State. The Cowgirls have one RPI Top 50 win, that against Kansas, and a sixth straight loss would surely bounce them from the field of sixty-four. Texas Tech may have lost to TCU this past week but still came in with three straight wins before that. A win against Texas would likely wrap-up a bid, but they still have a decent shot given their recent form, though a lack of truly big results could hurt them.
Continue reading

NCAA – Chris’ 2018 NCAA Tournament Bracket Projection v9 (Through 10/21 Matches)

(There are some teams such as Colorado, Wisconsin, Ohio State who aren’t in this projection using just big results that I feel would be in my “final” bracket at this point due to overall RPI position and league finish. It’s a weird RPI year, so I’ll make sure to note my thinking when I adjust all of this for the final field projection in a few weeks.)

America East – Stony Brook*
AAC – South Florida*, Memphis
Atlantic 10 – Saint Louis*
ACC – [1] North Carolina*, [4] Florida State, [3] Duke, [4] Virginia, Boston College, NC State, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Clemson
A-Sun – Lipscomb*
Big 12 – [1] Baylor*, [3] Texas, [2] West Virginia, TCU, Kansas, Oklahoma State
Big East – [2] Georgetown*
Big Sky – Weber State*
Big South – Radford*
Big Ten – Penn State*, Rutgers, Illinois, Northwestern
Big West – UC Irvine*
CAA – James Madison*
C-USA – North Texas*
Horizon – Milwaukee*
Ivy – Penn*, Princeton
MAAC – Monmouth*
MAC – Bowling Green*
MVC – Loyola (Ill.)*
Mountain West – Boise State*
NEC – Central Connecticut State*
OVC – Tennessee-Martin*
Pac-12 – [1] Stanford*, [2] USC, [4] UCLA, Arizona, Washington State
Patriot – Colgate*
SEC – [2] Vanderbilt*, [3] Tennessee, [4] Texas A&M, Mississippi State, [3] South Carolina, Auburn, Arkansas, LSU, Ole Miss, Alabama
SoCon – Samford*
Southland – Central Arkansas*
SWAC – Howard*
Summit – Denver*
Sun Belt – Texas State*
WCC – BYU*, [1] Santa Clara, Pepperdine
WAC – UMKC*

LAST IN – Oklahoma State, Northwestern

LAST OUT – Louisville, Nebraska

OTHER BUBBLE IN – LSU, Virginia Tech, Washington State, Clemson, Illinois, Pepperdine, Ole Miss, Alabama

OTHER BUBBLE OUT – Colorado, Wisconsin, Ohio State, George Mason, Arizona State, Long Beach State, Texas Tech, Providence, Butler, Florida Atlantic

NCAA – Chris’ 2018 NCAA Tournament Bracket Projection v8 (Through 10/19 Matches)

America East – Stony Brook*
AAC – [4] South Florida*, Memphis
Atlantic 10 – Saint Louis*
ACC – [1] North Carolina*, [4] Florida State, [3] Duke, NC State, Virginia, [4] Boston College, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Louisville
A-Sun – Lipscomb*
Big 12 – [1] Baylor*, [3] Texas, [3] West Virginia, TCU, Oklahoma State, Kansas
Big East – [2] Georgetown*
Big Sky – Weber State*
Big South – Radford*
Big Ten – Penn State*, Rutgers, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Illinois, Northwestern
Big West – UC Irvine*
CAA – James Madison*
C-USA – North Texas*
Horizon – Milwaukee*
Ivy – Harvard*, Princeton
MAAC – Monmouth*
MAC – Bowling Green*
MVC – Loyola (Ill.)*
Mountain West – Boise State*
NEC – Central Connecticut State*
OVC – Tennessee-Martin*
Pac-12 – [1] Stanford*, [2] USC, UCLA, Arizona, Washington State, Colorado
Patriot – Colgate*
SEC – [2] Vanderbilt*, [3] Texas A&M, Mississippi State, [4] Tennessee, [2] South Carolina, Auburn, Arkansas, Alabama
SoCon – Samford*
Southland – Central Arkansas*
SWAC – Howard*
Summit – Denver*
Sun Belt – Texas State*
WCC – BYU*, [1] Santa Clara, Pepperdine
WAC – UMKC*

Last Nine IN

Colorado
Louisville
Northwestern
Washington State
Illinois
Nebraska
Alabama
Pepperdine
Clemson

Last Ten OUT

Texas Tech
LSU
Saint Joseph’s
Ohio State
Oregon
Arizona State
Butler
Providence
Long Beach State
Florida Atlantic