As a part of calculating CoachRank numbers, I also looked at the coaches that left their position after the 2013 season to see if there were any patterns that emerged in regards to those coaches who departed. The results are below, but here are some of the more intriguing things from the data I noted:
28% of Coaches With a CoachRank Score Under 17.00 Are Not Returning For 2014. The Rate For All Coaches Was Around 12%
Keep in mind there’s a pretty big hole in the data with no coaches rated between 16.72 and 21.59 having left, but it still looks like the sweet spot may be 17.00 points. Whereas the overall turnover rate this season was at about 12%, once you examine everyone who finished the season with a CoachRank score of 17.00 or below, that number jumps up to 28%. Broadly speaking, that would put the “danger zone” as roughly the bottom 25% of coaches currently ranked in the system. Fifty-three coaches are currently ranked at 17.00 or below going into the 2014 season. Naturally, some coaches may rise above that mark, while others may fall below it after the coming season. If current trends hold up, fifteen or so coaches from that group may be gone after 2014.
Those Between 17.00-28.00 Shouldn’t Breathe Easier
The percentage of coaches departing in the 17.00-28.00 range is significantly lower than that of the under 17.00 range at roughly 9%, though that’s still a shade higher than the 6% of coaches who departed at above 28.00 CoachRank score. That’s only part of the story though, as only Katherine Remy Vettori from Loyola (MD) was sacked with a CR score above 28.00, as the others leaving their post within that range retired or left for another job.
In the 17.00-28.00 range, one coach (Theresa Romagnolo) left for a bigger job, while Elie Monteiro also left for another job from UMass-Lowell, as they transition to DI. Three coaches were sacked, and one coach resigned. Delving a little deeper into the data, what can we learn about the four coaches who left who didn’t leave for a bigger job?
Beth Acreman (Murray State – 21.59)
The total CoachRank score only tells part of the story. If you factor out the 2009 season, which MSU finished with a 66.67 Season Score with, Acreman’s last four seasons grade out to an average of 10.32, which probably does a much better job of explaining why she was given the boot after this season. There seemed to be a mini revival in 2011, but the club went back downhill the last two seasons and didn’t win a postseason game in Acreman’s final four seasons. Beyond the numbers? Giant waves of internationals and enormous roster churn. The former certainly isn’t a death sentence for coaches, but it may well be a factor in some of the latter. And given the team’s underperformance in the last four seasons, it may well have been the final straw here.
Jeff Leightman (San Jose State – 24.24)
It was a pretty drastic fall for San Jose State and Leightman, who won at least a share of a league title in 2009 and 2010 but which has declined precipitously since that 2010 triumph. There’s not really much nuanced about SJSU’s fall. They hit a high point in 2010 but have declined every season since then, culminating with last season’s desultory season.
Ali Khosroshahin (USC – 26.06)
2009 & 2010 Season Scores: 54.18, 57.21
2011-2013 Season Score Average: 6.30
Whether Khosroshahin was a victim of his own success after his shock title triumph in 2007 or that of a quick-triggered AD, what’s not debatable is the stunning drop after the 2010 season. USC took just about a third of the possible league points in the Pac-12 and missed out on three straight NCAA Tournaments after having made the Big Dance in Khosroshahin’s first four seasons. Likely not helping matters was USC’s continued appearance near the top of recruiting rankings every offseason. It was the grandest of ironies: Khosroshahin essentially paying the price for not getting the most out of top youth talent. Or what his predecessor Jim Millinder was essentially sacked for.
Steve Ballard (UTSA – 27.62)
Perhaps harsh by some measures but calculated by others. Considering Ballard took a program that had been the dreams of some and gotten it to the NCAA Tournament in 2010, you have to raise your eyebrow a little at how quickly the Roadrunners dispensed with him, especially considering how the club was still respectable in 2011. But the last two seasons, 5.61 and 7.78 in the Season Score department, perhaps showed that UTSA was going to struggle with a step up in competition from the Southland, with the club languishing near the bottom in both the WAC and C-USA. Ballard also, like Acreman, relied heavily on international recruits, transfers, and JUCO newcomers as his stint progressed, with lots of roster churn as well. That more than anything may have urged the club to pull the plug. Continue reading