Category Archives: Uncategorized

The WoSo Independent Podcast – Episode #33 – The Insomniac: College Cup Final Review + Dr. Offseason (Salt Lake & Houston)

It’s episode #33 of the WoSo Independent Podcast, featuring a brief review of the College Cup final and where this year’s Stanford team ranks in the history of women’s college soccer (0:37). Then, Chris (@chris_awk) and Jon (@jonlipsitz) close out the college season by giving their picks for the Hermann Trophy (11:30). They then delve into the NWSL postseason, first talking about the newly christened Salt Lake Royals (22:50) and manager Laura Harvey, who faces a big task to meet big expectations. Finally, they finish with talks about another club with a new manager, the Houston Dash (51:15).

NCAA – 2017 WTSR Worksheet

A while back, I came up with the concept of Weighted Total Shot Ratio (WTSR), explained a little bit here and here. I tweeted out some numbers from early conference tournaments before getting overwhelmed, but I finished getting all of the data into my spreadsheet and am posting here in case some of the stat nerds are interested.

A few notes:

1. This covers conference matches only, as comparing otherwise is almost impossible thanks to differing strengths of schedule.

2. I wasn’t able to find data for a small group of schools, which is why some cells are empty on the spreadsheet. Blame the shoddy stat tracking.

3. Apparently, I can’t upload spreadsheet files due to WordPress security, so a PDF is here:

2017ncaawtsr.

The WoSo Independent Podcast – Episode #32 – Countdown Complete + Dr. Offseason (Sky Blue FC)

In episode #32 of the WoSo Independent Podcast, Chris (@chris_awk) and Jon (@jonlipsitz) discuss the top senior prospects for January’s NWSL Draft that will be playing at this weekend’s College Cup in Orlando (6:30). They then give quick picks for the College Cup (49:00). Finally, they continue with Dr. Offseason in the NWSL (54:20), discussing where Sky Blue FC and new manager Denise Reddy are heading into the 2018 season.

The WoSo Independent Podcast – Episode #31 – NCAA Tournament Review + Dr. Offseason (Portland)

Chris and Jon return for Episode #31 of the WoSo Independent Podcast. They start off by talking about the College Cup to this point and discuss the four quarterfinals and who they favor in each (1:50). Afterward, they begin the much vaunted DR. OFFSEASON discussion by talking about the reigning NWSL champion Portland Thorns (25:59). How will the club cope with the offseason losses of Nadia Nadim & Amandine Henry? Where might be a priority to fill with the club’s two first round picks in January’s draft?

NCAA – 2017 NCAA Tournament Second Round Time Chart

All matches to take place on Friday. All times listed are EST.

2:00 PM – Tennessee vs Washington State
2:30 PM – (4) Princeton vs NC State
3:00 PM – Santa Clara vs Vanderbilt
4:00 PM – (3) Penn State vs Wake Forest
4:30 PM – (3) USC vs Baylor
5:00 PM – (1) North Carolina vs Colorado
5:00 PM – (4) Texas vs Clemson
6:00 PM – (1) South Carolina vs Wisconsin
6:00 PM – (3) Florida vs South Florida
7:00 PM – (2) West Virginia vs Rutgers
7:30 PM – (1) Duke vs Oklahoma State
7:30 PM – (4) Florida State vs Arizona
8:00 PM – (3) Virginia vs Pepperdine
8:30 PM – (2) Texas A&M vs Notre Dame
10:00 PM – (1) Stanford vs Auburn
11:00 PM – (2) UCLA vs Northwestern

The WoSo Independent Podcast – Episode #30 – A Bad Weekend in Orlando

Chris (@chris_awk) and Jon (@jonlipsitz) return for Episode #30 of the WoSo Independent Podcast and discuss the NWSL final in detail including the refereeing debacle. They bridge into a brief discussion on the USWNT call-up of McCall Zerboni, while Chris gives a name of a collegian he’d like to see tried out at full-back. They then discuss the calamitous NWSL final in terms of business, with disappointing live attendance and the abysmal television ratings and where that puts the league heading into 2018 and beyond. There’s talk of the league’s continued lack of a commissioner, and then some chatter about what Chris & Jon would like to see heading into next year out of the league.

NCAA – Round One Time/Day Chart

All times listed are EST. Numbers in brackets are RPI rank.

Friday

6:00 PM – (1) South Carolina [3] vs Alabama State [238]
6:00 PM – (3) Florida [19] vs South Alabama [59]
6:00 PM – (4) Ohio State [17] vs Vanderbilt [40]
6:00 PM – (4) Texas [12] vs North Texas [65]
6:00 PM – Auburn [27] vs Hofstra [22]
7:00 PM – (4) Princeton [9] vs Monmouth [37]
7:00 PM – (4) Florida State [16] vs Ole Miss [41]
7:00 PM – Clemson [38] vs Alabama [28]
7:00 PM – Wake Forest [43] vs Georgetown [24]
7:30 PM – (3) Penn State [10] vs Stony Brook [159]
8:00 PM – Baylor [34] vs Rice [36]
8:00 PM – Wisconsin [29] vs Toledo [124]
8:30 PM – (2) Texas A&M [6] vs Lamar [72]
9:00 PM – Arizona [26] vs TCU [46]
10:00 PM – (2) UCLA [8] vs San Diego State [80]

Saturday

1:00 PM – (1) North Carolina [2] vs High Point [98]
1:00 PM – (2) West Virginia [7] vs Bucknell [81]
1:00 PM – NC State [30] vs Arkansas [42]
1:00 PM – Oklahoma State [32] vs Missouri State [118]
1:00 PM – South Florida [15] vs Florida Gulf Coast [35]
3:00 PM – (3) USC [18] vs Eastern Washington [87]
4:00 PM – Pepperdine [13] vs Cal State Fullerton [94]
4:30 PM – Cal [25] vs Santa Clara [31]
5:00 PM – Rutgers [11] vs La Salle [47]
5:00 PM – Tennessee [20] vs Murray State [21]
7:00 PM – (1) Duke [4] vs UNC Greensboro [104]
7:00 PM – (2) UCF [5] vs Washington State [49]
7:00 PM – (3) Virginia [23] vs Saint Francis (PA) [177]
7:00 PM – Notre Dame [14] vs IUPUI [123]
10:00 PM – (1) Stanford [1] vs Utah Valley [213]

Sunday

2:00 PM – Colorado [44] vs Denver [225]
2:00 PM – Northwestern [33] vs Butler [45]

NCAA – 2017 NCAA Tournament – Chris’ Mock Bracket

I went full cheapskate mode (i.e. NCAA travel practices) with this bracket in all but a few places (see Butler not hosting Indiana in round one). Palo Alto Quadrant winner plays College Station Quadrant winner in Final Four, while Chapel Hill Quadrant winner does the same with Durham Quadrant winner.

Palo Alto Quadrant

[1] Stanford vs Utah Valley
Wisconsin vs Butler
[4] Pepperdine vs Arizona
Oklahoma State vs Arkansas

[2] UCLA vs San Diego State
Notre Dame vs Northwestern
[3] Ohio State vs Toledo
Cal vs Santa Clara

College Station Quadrant

[1] Texas A&M vs Lamar
Colorado vs Denver
[4] USC vs Cal State Fullerton
Texas vs North Texas

[2] UCF vs Alabama State
Alabama vs Baylor
[3] Florida vs South Alabama
Florida State vs Minnesota

Chapel Hill Quadrant

[1] North Carolina vs UNC Greensboro
Washington State vs Eastern Washington
[4] South Florida vs Florida Gulf Coast
Georgetown vs Wake Forest

[2] Penn State vs Bucknell
Princeton vs La Salle
[3] West Virginia vs Saint Francis (PA)
Hofstra vs Monmouth

Durham Quadrant

[1] Duke vs High Point
Auburn vs TCU
[4] Virginia vs IUPUI
Murray State vs Vanderbilt

[2] South Carolina vs Missouri State
NC State vs Cincinnati
[3] Rutgers vs Stony Brook
Tennessee vs Clemson

NCAA – Chris’ Final 2017 NCAA Tournament Field Projection

(Mock bracket to come later. With seeds.)

America East (1) – Stony Brook*
AAC (3) – UCF, South Florida*, Cincinnati
Atlantic 10 (1) – La Salle*
ACC (8) – North Carolina*, Duke, Notre Dame, Florida State, Virginia, NC State, Clemson, Wake Forest
Atlantic Sun (1) – Florida Gulf Coast*
Big 12 (5) – West Virginia, Texas, Oklahoma State, Baylor*, TCU
Big East (2) – Georgetown*, Butler
Big Sky (1) – Eastern Washington*
Big South (1) – High Point*
Big Ten (6) – Penn State*, Rutgers, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Minnesota
Big West (1) – Cal State Fullerton*
Colonial (1) – Hofstra*
Conference USA (1) – North Texas*
Horizon (1) – IUPUI*
Ivy (1) – Princeton*
MAAC (1) – Monmouth*
MAC (1) – Toledo*
MVC (1) – Missouri State*
Mountain West (1) – San Diego State*
NEC (1) – Saint Francis (PA)*
OVC (1) – Murray State*
Pac-12 (7) – Stanford*, UCLA, USC, Cal, Arizona, Colorado, Washington State
Patriot (1) – Bucknell*
SEC (8) – South Carolina, Texas A&M*, Florida, Tennessee, Auburn, Alabama, Vanderbilt, Arkansas
SoCon (1) – UNC Greensboro*
Southland (1) – Lamar*
SWAC (1) – Alabama State*
Summit (1) – Denver*
Sun Belt (1) – South Alabama*
WCC (2) – Pepperdine*, Santa Clara
WAC (1) – Utah Valley*

OUT (In order that I believe they’re out…)

Ole Miss – Above Colorado in terms of results against RPI Top 50 teams but don’t have head-to-head advantages against bubble rivals other than Memphis. Also could get dinged for very poor finish (one win in last eight)

Memphis – H2H loss with Ole Miss. Only RPI Top 50 win is against Rice, who is also out.

Mississippi State – No RPI Top 50 wins is pretty much an automatic disqualified. Bad loss at home against Kentucky. No head-to-head advantages against bubble rivals.

Saint Louis – RPI value (not rank) is lower than anyone who has gained an at-large bid. Otherwise, I think they’d have a real shot with wins over likely tournament teams Vanderbilt and Murray State.

Virginia Tech – RPI value (not rank) is lower than anyone who has gained an at-large bid. Good win at Notre Dame, draw vs Pepperdine. League position is lower than anyone with at-large bid in the past.

Rice – No RPI Top 50 wins despite draw with Baylor and strong RPI rank.

Boston College – Not enough RPI Top 50 wins (just one vs #43 Wake Forest) Lose H2H against bubble rival Vanderbilt, draw with bubble rival Virginia Tech.

Northeastern – H2H loss to Boston College. H2H win at TCU but doesn’t have enough in terms of RPI Top 50 results.

LSU – RPI value (not rank) is lower than anyone who has gained an at-large bid. No RPI Top 50 wins.

Marquette – No positive RPI Top 50 results.

NCAA – Chris’ Bracketology v7.5

I’ve added a few more models that rely on big wins only and keep draws out of the equation. Next update will be the final field projection Sunday evening.

Who the bracket models agree on:

America East – Stony Brook*
AAC – [2] UCF*, South Florida, Cincinnati
Atlantic 10 – La Salle*
ACC – [1] Duke*, [2] North Carolina, [4] Virginia, [4] Notre Dame, Florida State, NC State, Wake Forest
Atlantic Sun – Lipscomb*
Big 12 – [3] West Virginia, Texas, Oklahoma State, Baylor, TCU*
Big East – Georgetown*, Butler
Big Sky – Eastern Washington*
Big South – High Point*
Big Ten – [2] Penn State, [3] Ohio State, [4] Rutgers, Wisconsin, Northwestern*, Minnesota
Big West – Cal State Northridge*
CAA – Hofstra*
Conference USA – North Texas*
Horizon – Milwaukee*
Ivy – Princeton, Columbia*
MAAC – Monmouth*
MAC – Toledo*
MVC – Missouri State*
Mountain West – San Diego State*
NEC – Fairleigh Dickinson*
OVC – Murray State*
Pac-12 – [1] Stanford*, [2] UCLA, [3] USC, Arizona, Cal, Washington State
Patriot – Navy*
SEC – [1] South Carolina, [2] Texas A&M*, [3] Florida, Tennessee, Auburn, Alabama, Vanderbilt, Arkansas
SoCon – UNC Greensboro*
Southland – Lamar*
SWAC – Alabama State*
Summit – Denver*
Sun Belt – South Alabama*
WCC – [4] Pepperdine*
WAC – Utah Valley*

Chris’ Bubble Breakdown

IN (all models)

Northwestern (if needed), Oklahoma State, Vanderbilt (if TCU & Northwestern win auto bids, in three models otherwise), Baylor, Arkansas, Butler, Wake Forest, Minnesota, Washington State, Cincinnati

IN (two models of four)

Santa Clara, Clemson (also potentially in all four models depending on auto bids), Florida Gulf Coast (potentially just one model depending on auto bids), TCU, Virginia Tech

OUT (all models)

Rice, Monmouth (if they didn’t have MAAC auto bid), Ole Miss, Colorado, Mississippi State, Memphis, Boston College, Northeastern, Marquette, La Salle, LSU, San Jose State