NCAA Soccer – RPI Bracket 1.0 + Bubble Team Rankings

Some notes:

-Automatic bid winners are denoted with an asterisk. League leaders are projected auto bid winners after half of a league’s games have been played (that’s nobody right now). Until then, the team with the highest RPI is projected as the auto bid winner.

-As is custom, teams currently under .500 are not projected into the bracket as at-large bids.

-I ranked the bubble teams according to Chris Thomas’ chart that denotes values to wins over RPI Top 50 teams. That chart used the adjusted RPI, but I’m using the unadjusted RPI for brevity’s sake but will go back to the adjusted RPI before my final projected bracket.

-Will update the RPI bracket after every Friday and Sunday, with more updates perhaps during conference tournament week.

SEEDED

1. Stanford – Pac-12*
2. Virginia – ACC*
3. Penn State – Big Ten*
4. North Carolina – ACC

5. Georgetown – Big East*
6. Florida State – ACC
7. UCLA – Pac-12
8. Wake Forest – ACC

9. South Carolina – SEC*
10. Denver – Summit*
11. Virginia Tech – ACC
12. Notre Dame – ACC

13. Boston College – ACC
14. UCF – AAC*
15. Santa Clara – WCC*
16. Portland – WCC

UNSEEDED

17. Georgia – SEC
18. Nebraska – Big Ten
19. Colorado – Pac-12
20. Maryland – ACC
21. Arkansas – SEC
22. Marquette – Big East
23. Florida – SEC
24. Kentucky – SEC
25. Colorado College – C-USA*
26. Rutgers – AAC
27. William & Mary – CAA*
28. Minnesota – Big Ten
29. Michigan – Big Ten
30. Texas Tech – Big XII*
31. UConn – AAC
32. Boston University – Patriot*
33. Washington State – Pac-12
34. BYU – WCC
35. Long Beach State – Big West*
36. Wisconsin – Big Ten
37. Arizona State – Pac-12
38. West Virginia – Big XII
39. Saint John’s (NY) – Big East
40. Ole Miss – SEC
41. Louisville – AAC
42. Cal – Pac-12
43. Indiana – Big Ten
44. Oklahoma State – Big XII
45. Illinois – Big Ten
46. Ohio State – Big Ten
47. La Salle – A10*
48. Utah State – Mountain West*
49. Monmouth – MAAC*
50. Stephen F. Austin – Southland*
51. Brown – Ivy*
52. Stony Brook – America East*
53. Samford – SoCon*
54. Weber State – Big Sky*
55. Seattle – WAC*
56. Florida Gulf Coast – A-Sun*
57. Eastern Michigan – MAC*
58. Liberty – Big South*
59. Wisconsin-Milwaukee – Horizon*
60. Illinois State – MVC*
61. Austin Peay – OVC*
62. Western Kentucky – Sun Belt*
63. Wagner – NEC*
64. Alcorn State – SWAC*

Last Five In
-Ohio State
-Illinois
-Oklahoma State
-Indiana
-Cal

Last Five Out
-Baylor
-Tennessee
-Utah
-Clemson
-James Madison

Next Five Out
-UC Irvine
-Pepperdine
-NC State
-Miami (FL)
-Texas

Multiple Bid Conferences

8 – ACC
8 – Big Ten
6 – Pac-12
6 – SEC
4 – AAC
3 – Big XII
3 – Big East
3 – WCC

Chris Ranks The Bubble Teams:

1 – Oklahoma State
2 – Clemson
3 – Louisville
4 – Tennessee
5 – Cal
6 – Ole Miss
7 – Ohio State
8 – Indiana

9 – Illinois
10 – UC Irvine
11 – Utah
12 – Pepperdine
13 – Saint John’s (NY)
14 – Baylor
15 – James Madison

8 thoughts on “NCAA Soccer – RPI Bracket 1.0 + Bubble Team Rankings

  1. Beau Dure

    Hypothetical, I suppose: Duke is currently 4-5-3. Looking at their schedule, they have two more really tough games and probably four they really ought to win. So they should end up just above .500, maybe 8-7-4 or so. Would they make it?

    Reply
    1. Chris Henderson Post author

      They probably make it if they get to .500, because it’ll involve beating a team with a very good RPI.

      I contend the point that they have four they really ought to win though. At BC, Maryland, and Clemson are all going to be very tough for them.

      Reply
        1. sec

          Duke had a highly-ranked group of freshman join them this year, and have had a number of strong recruiting years recently. They’ve not been blown out in any matches. And the Duke seniors have already tasted the College Cup final, and the Elite 8 (twice). I feel bad for ACC newcomers, Syracuse and Pitt, who will struggle to win another match this season. I feel bad for those players. It will take a couple of recruiting years for those programs to catch up.

          Reply
  2. chuck

    could you please explain Georgetown high seeding and high RPI…I know they have a great W/L record but i just do not see quality opponents on their schedule that justify their being rated so highly.

    Reply
    1. Chris Henderson Post author

      7 wins over teams in the uRPI Top 90. No really bad results. Might fall a bit, but if they win out, they should have a decent shot at a top two seed.

      Reply
  3. mmbop

    Three of your “last five” in are from the Big 10? Of course your scenerio requires teams like BU and LB State to win their leagues and not end up on the bubble (and with better RPIs) than the B10 teams. I’d love to see an unbiased comparison between Ohio State, Illinois and Oklahoma State with Lasalle, Utah State and Monmouth if the three small conference schools are upset in their conference playoffs. And maybe, for once, I’d love to see the selection committee by-pass Big time programs (with mediocre records) for some mid-majors with better W-L records but questionable (in the subjective view of the committee) profiles.

    Reply
    1. Chris Henderson Post author

      Oklahoma State is probably guaranteed to be in if they’re on the bubble thanks to the draw with Florida State.

      La Salle and Monmouth have zero chance of an at-large bid. Touch and go with Utah State, depending on how well Nebraska does.

      Reply

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *