So this might need some explaining.
Everything after the jump is pretty self-explanatory. Those are my best guesses based on RPI and significant results as to what each bubble team needs to make it into the field. Of course, that’s with the caveat that the bubble may contract if there are conference tournament upsets with locked teams stealing at-large bids.
Before the jump, I’ve separated all the teams who I think have legitimate claims to a potential at-large bid into three categories. The first shows those teams with an at-large chance who are still possibilities for their league’s automatic bid. The second category is teams eliminated from their conference tournament or out of the running for their league’s title in conferences without tournaments who are on the bubble. The third category is similar but with teams who are locked into the field with an at-large berth.
As the week goes on, the teams in the first category will dwindle and be moved into one of the last three categories (or removed entirely for team’s on the back edge of the bubble), giving us our final bubble group on Sunday evening. With teams shifting between groups, we’ll also be able to grab an estimate of how many spots are up for grab between bubble teams.
The last category is for auto bid holders. Teams will migrate down here throughout the week as well obviously. By this first count, there are currently fifty-one teams in the running for twenty-eight at-large bids.
Active Auto-Bid Pool (44): Boston University, Dayton, La Salle, Richmond, Duke, Virginia, Wake Forest, Florida State, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Texas A&M, Kansas, Texas, Texas Tech, Missouri, West Virginia, Notre Dame, Louisville, Georgetown, Penn State, Illinois, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Iowa, UC Irvine, Long Beach State, William & Mary, Memphis, UCF, Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Central Michigan, Florida, Kentucky, Tennessee, South Carolina, Auburn, LSU, Georgia, Alabama, Denver, Pepperdine, Santa Clara, San Diego
Eliminated Bubble Pool (7): Miami (FL), NC State, Oregon State, Cal, Washington State, Portland, BYU
Eliminated Lock Pool (6): North Carolina, Boston College, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Marquette, UCLA
Confirmed Auto-Bid Pool (2/30): Stanford, Harvard
Alabama – In with a win. Will get hard look even without.
Boston University – Probably needs auto bid. May be OK with loss if bubble doesn’t contract.
BYU – Probably cooked. Has to beat St. Mary’s (CA), hope for others’ misfortune.
Cal – Probably in. Obviously in with result against Stanford.
Central Michigan – Needs to get to the final. Still shaky without auto bid.
Dayton – Probably in.
Denver – Probably needs the auto bid.
Georgetown – Probably in unless bubble contracts severely.
Iowa – Needs to get to the final.
Kansas – In with a win. Leaning towards being in if bubble doesn’t contract either way.
La Salle – Might need one win but still probably safe either way.
Long Beach State – Might be in with a win. Fortunes improving as San Diego does.
Louisville – Probably in.
Miami (FL) – Should be in if selection committee follows own guidelines.
Michigan State – Probably needs to make the final. Bad profile.
Missouri – Good tournament matchup. Has to win one, that might be good enough.
NC State – Could get a look if bubble doesn’t contract. Probably around 25%.
Ohio State – In with a win. Looks very shaky without one.
Oregon State – Probably in. Definitely in if they don’t lose to Oregon.
Portland – Probably in if they get to .500. Good non-conference wins.
Richmond – Might be in if they reach final beating Dayton/La Salle, losing to other.
San Diego – Probably in.
Texas – Bad profile. Has to win one, possibly needs two wins.
Texas Tech – Bad profile. Has to get to the Big XII final.
Washington State – Must beat Washington.
William & Mary – Needs one win, might need the auto bid.
Wisconsin – Bad conference tournament matchup. Should be in with a win.