Bubble – UCF, UConn, Memphis, South Florida
Bubble (Danger) – Tulsa
This league’s a mess right now, and UConn’s probably going to be on the wrong end of a double-edged sword. The Huskies got their big result by beating UCF this past weekend…but that also dropped UCF’s RPI to the extent that UConn’s profile still doesn’t look great in comparison to its rivals. UCF should be fine if they don’t cough up any of the games at home this weekend. If they fall onto the bubble? Trouble. The Knights don’t have any results against anyone higher than RPI #40 Memphis. Those Tigers are going to have to win a few matches in the AAC Tournament, as they still haven’t taken the expected RPI hit from the league’s gruesome Texas twosome yet. South Florida’s profile isn’t awful, but it’s not great either, so the Bulls are probably going to need to keep winning into November, despite two weekend wins. Having won just one of six league games, it’s safe to say Tulsa’s run out of steam far too soon.
Lock – La Salle
Bubble – Rhode Island
Bubble (Danger) – George Washington
Precedent says La Salle is now safe at RPI #21…but are they? They’ve got no positive results against RPI Top 50 teams, but if they were excluded from an at-large spot, they’d be the highest ranked team to ever be denied a bid since we started keeping these numbers. Advice? Keep winning. Rhode Island’s hanging onto the bubble doggedly but doesn’t have a chance, along with George Washington, who’ve still done well to win their last three in the league.
Lock – North Carolina, Florida State, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Notre Dame
Bubble – Clemson, Boston College
Bubble (Danger) – Duke, Wake Forest
North Carolina and Florida State are both battling for a #1 seed, and the latter arguably needs a win more in their meeting this week given the clubs’ win profiles. Virginia just doesn’t have the results right now to merit a top two seed, though that could change down the stretch. Virginia Tech seems to be fading after their ferocious start, while Notre Dame looks like a very good team being victimized by the RPI at the moment. Clemson’s not listed as a lock, but they’ll be there next week in all likelihood. Boston College probably won’t want to tempt fate on the bubble, but it might just be a matter of running out the clock and not dropping too far. Duke looks unlikely to finish at .500 given their finishing kick, while Wake Forest is alive, technically, for another week.