NCAA – 2014 CoachRank – Lessons From The Recently Departed

As a part of calculating CoachRank numbers, I also looked at the coaches that left their position after the 2013 season to see if there were any patterns that emerged in regards to those coaches who departed.  The results are below, but here are some of the more intriguing things from the data I noted:

28% of Coaches With a CoachRank Score Under 17.00 Are Not Returning For 2014. The Rate For All Coaches Was Around 12%

Keep in mind there’s a pretty big hole in the data with no coaches rated between 16.72 and 21.59 having left, but it still looks like the sweet spot may be 17.00 points.  Whereas the overall turnover rate this season was at about 12%, once you examine everyone who finished the season with a CoachRank score of 17.00 or below, that number jumps up to 28%.  Broadly speaking, that would put the “danger zone” as roughly the bottom 25% of coaches currently ranked in the system.  Fifty-three coaches are currently ranked at 17.00 or below going into the 2014 season.  Naturally, some coaches may rise above that mark, while others may fall below it after the coming season.  If current trends hold up, fifteen or so coaches from that group may be gone after 2014.

Those Between 17.00-28.00 Shouldn’t Breathe Easier

The percentage of coaches departing in the 17.00-28.00 range is significantly lower than that of the under 17.00 range at roughly 9%, though that’s still a shade higher than the 6% of coaches who departed at above 28.00 CoachRank score.  That’s only part of the story though, as only Katherine Remy Vettori from Loyola (MD) was sacked with a CR score above 28.00, as the others leaving their post within that range retired or left for another job.

In the 17.00-28.00 range, one coach (Theresa Romagnolo) left for a bigger job, while Elie Monteiro also left for another job from UMass-Lowell, as they transition to DI.  Three coaches were sacked, and one coach resigned.  Delving a little deeper into the data, what can we learn about the four coaches who left who didn’t leave for a bigger job?

Beth Acreman (Murray State – 21.59)

The total CoachRank score only tells part of the story.  If you factor out the 2009 season, which MSU finished with a 66.67 Season Score with, Acreman’s last four seasons grade out to an average of 10.32, which probably does a much better job of explaining why she was given the boot after this season.  There seemed to be a mini revival in 2011, but the club went back downhill the last two seasons and didn’t win a postseason game in Acreman’s final four seasons.  Beyond the numbers?  Giant waves of internationals and enormous roster churn.  The former certainly isn’t a death sentence for coaches, but it may well be a factor in some of the latter.  And given the team’s underperformance in the last four seasons, it may well have been the final straw here.

Jeff Leightman (San Jose State – 24.24)

It was a pretty drastic fall for San Jose State and Leightman, who won at least a share of a league title in 2009 and 2010 but which has declined precipitously since that 2010 triumph.  There’s not really much nuanced about SJSU’s fall.  They hit a high point in 2010 but have declined every season since then, culminating with last season’s desultory season.

Ali Khosroshahin (USC – 26.06)

2009 & 2010 Season Scores: 54.18, 57.21

2011-2013 Season Score Average: 6.30

Whether Khosroshahin was a victim of his own success after his shock title triumph in 2007 or that of a quick-triggered AD, what’s not debatable is the stunning drop after the 2010 season.  USC took just about a third of the possible league points in the Pac-12 and missed out on three straight NCAA Tournaments after having made the Big Dance in Khosroshahin’s first four seasons.  Likely not helping matters was USC’s continued appearance near the top of recruiting rankings every offseason.  It was the grandest of ironies:  Khosroshahin essentially paying the price for not getting the most out of top youth talent.  Or what his predecessor Jim Millinder was essentially sacked for.

Steve Ballard (UTSA – 27.62)

Perhaps harsh by some measures but calculated by others.  Considering Ballard took a program that had been the dreams of some and gotten it to the NCAA Tournament in 2010, you have to raise your eyebrow a little at how quickly the Roadrunners dispensed with him, especially considering how the club was still respectable in 2011.  But the last two seasons, 5.61 and 7.78 in the Season Score department, perhaps showed that UTSA was going to struggle with a step up in competition from the Southland, with the club languishing near the bottom in both the WAC and C-USA.  Ballard also, like Acreman, relied heavily on international recruits, transfers, and JUCO newcomers as his stint progressed, with lots of roster churn as well.  That more than anything may have urged the club to pull the plug. Continue reading

NCAA – 2014 CoachRank Adjusted Rankings – Trendwatch

The totals for CoachRank only tell part of the story. You can get a clearer view of the big picture by examining some of the trends associated with the individual season scores that are averaged together to get the total CoachRank score.

The following are some of those trends, sorted by conference.

“Going Up” = Teams whose Season Scores have gone up in successive years between 2011-2013.
“Going Down” = Teams whose Season Scores have gone down in successive years between 2011-2013.
One-Hit Wonder = Teams who had an abnormally high Season Score in a season as compared to other Seasons Scores in the measured time period.
One-Hit Blunder = Teams who had an abnormally low Season Score in a season as compared to other Seasons Scores in the measured time period.

AAC

Going Up – East Carolina, UConn
Going Down – Memphis
One-Hit Wonder
One-Hit Blunder – South Florida (2011)

ACC

Going Up – Clemson, Virginia
Going Down – Wake Forest, Duke
One-Hit Wonder
One-Hit Blunder

America East

Going Up – Maine
Going Down
One-Hit Wonder – Binghamton (2009)
One-Hit Blunder – Hartford (2009), Stony Brook (2011)

Atlantic 10

Going Up
Going Down – Davidson, Richmond
One-Hit Wonder – Saint Joseph’s (2012)
One-Hit Blunder – George Mason (2012)

Atlantic Sun

Going Up – Kennesaw State
Going Down – Northern Kentucky
One-Hit Wonder
One-Hit Blunder

Big XII

Going Up – Texas Tech
Going Down – Kansas
One-Hit Wonder – Baylor (2012)
One-Hit Blunder – Oklahoma State (2012)
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NCAA – 2014 CoachRank Adjusted Rankings – By Conference

An easier reference point for those just looking to compare coaches from a single conference. Further supplemental material coming throughout the week.

AAC

23. 51.70 – Brooks Monaghan (Memphis)
63. 35.31 – Denise Schilte-Brown (South Florida)
120. 23.23 – Len Tsantiris (UConn)
151. 17.54 – Rob Donnenwirth (East Carolina)
153. 17.17 – Kyle Cussen (Tulsa)

ACC

2. 85.59 – Mark Krikorian (Florida State)
3. 79.11 – Anson Dorrance (North Carolina)
12. 68.55 – Steve Swanson (Virginia)
15. 63.32 – Tony Da Luz (Wake Forest)
21. 55.38 – Alison Foley (Boston College)
30. 50.68 – Robbie Church (Duke)
32. 49.66 – Chugger Adair (Virginia Tech)
83. 31.04 – Karen Ferguson-Dayes (Louisville)
159. 15.70 – Phil Wheddon (Syracuse)
203. 3.16 – Eddie Radwanski (Clemson)
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DC-Area AmWoSo: Three Teams in the Playoffs; Youth Championships Coming to Town

Ashley Herndon in her fourth year with the Spirit Reserves helped them to their first undefeated season. (Photo by Larry J. Clark)

Ashley Herndon in her fourth year with the Spirit Reserves helped them to their first undefeated season. (Photo by Larry J. Clark)


You couldn’t ask for much more from the local teams this year: with three playoff spots available in the WPSL and the W-League, all three were filled by teams in the area. The ASA Chesapeake Charge some time ago claimed first place and the sole playoff spot in the WPSL’s South Atlantic Division, and the Washington Spirit Reserves did likewise with first place in the W-League’s Northeastern Conference. (Don’t ask me why the WPSL thinks Pennsylvania and Maryland are South Atlantic.)
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NCAA – 2014 CoachRank Adjusted Rankings

(Again, read the damn FAQ below before asking questions and/or losing your mind. Supplemental content will appear throughout the week.)

1. 96.11 – Paul Ratcliffe (Stanford)
2. 85.59 – Mark Krikorian (Florida State)
3. 79.11 – Anson Dorrance (North Carolina)
4. 73.57 – Markus Roeders (Marquette)
5. 73.32 – Nancy Feldman (Boston University)
6. 71.35 – Nikki Izzo-Brown (West Virginia)
7. 71.05 – Erica Walsh (Penn State)
8. 70.59 – Garrett Smith (Portland)
9. 70.20 – Becky Burleigh (Florida)
10. 69.61 – Jim Blankenship (Florida Gulf Coast)

11. 68.56 – G. Guerrieri (Texas A&M)
12. 68.55 – Steve Swanson (Virginia)
13. 65.74 – Drew Roff (Illinois State)
14. 64.03 – Jennifer Rockwood (BYU)
15. 63.32 – Tony Da Luz (Wake Forest)
16. 62.10 – Mike Tucker (Dayton)
17. 61.70 – Jeff Hooker (Denver)
18. 60.24 – Mike Friesen (San Diego State)
19. 59.59 – Jerry Smith (Santa Clara)
20. 55.52 – Lori Walker (Ohio State)

21. 55.38 – Alison Foley (Boston College)
22. 54.92 – Ray Leone (Harvard)
23. 51.70 – Brooks Monaghan (Memphis)
24. 51.67 – Colin Carmichael (Oklahoma State)
25. 51.65 – Shelley Smith (South Carolina)
26. 51.49 – Dave Nolan (Georgetown)
27. 51.31 – Ben Sohrabi (Radford)
28. 51.25 – Heather Cairns (Utah State)
29. 51.14 – Brenda Van Stralen (Saint Francis (PA))
30. 50.68 – Robbie Church (Duke)
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NCAA – CoachRank Quick FAQ (AKA Read Before Killing The Messenger)

What Is CoachRank?

CoachRank is a data-driven, (hopefully) objective system of measuring coach performance over a long-term (three-year and above) period of time.  CoachRank includes multiple factors to formulate a score on a 0-100 scale that seeks to enable valid and accurate comparisons between DI coaches regardless of program or conference size.  “Season” scores are taken for every season a club plays under a current manager (currently dating back to 2009), with the average of those season scores being the base CoachRank score.

What Factors Are Used To Calculate CoachRank?

The exact factors and formula used to calculate the CoachRank score are proprietary information at this time, but the six factors used to calculate the base score are a combination of a club’s league performance, conference tournament performance (if applicable), and NCAA Tournament performance.  The base score is used mostly to compare coaches at the same club while limiting the effects of shifts in conference strength in measurements.

The adjusted score, is used for just about everything else with CoachRank, including the big list.  Adjusted scores are calculated by multiplying the base season score by an adjustment percentage calculated by measuring the school’s conference’s performance in that season’s NCAA Tournament. The adjustment percentage can give a maximum of fifty percentage points to multiply the base score with, but the highest adjustment percentage at current is 24% for the ACC in both 2012 and 2013.  As with the base score, adjusted season scores are averaged to get a total adjusted score for a certain time period.

Adjusted scores allow CoachRank to accurately reflect the difficulties of playing in and succeeding in the best conferences, while also not arbitrarily giving an inaccurate boost to clubs from big conferences who don’t perform well.

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DC-area AmWoSo July 11 update: The Playoffs are Nigh

Veteran Ali Andrzejewski is leading her ASA Chesapeake Charge into the playoffs.

Veteran Ali Andrzejewski is leading her ASA Chesapeake Charge into the playoffs.

With the regular season coming to an end and the playoffs looming, the two local brackets – WPSL and W-League – couldn’t look more different, with one completely settled and the other very much up in the air.
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NWSL – Fantasy Round Fourteen Preview

How unpredictable has the NWSL been in recent weeks? Only the top two teams have more than nine points in their past six matches, indicating enormous volatility throughout the rest of the table. As you might expect, it’s also proving to be a nightmare for fantasy owners.

I still managed to scrape through with over a hundred fifty points (probably) this past round, no doubt helped by lucking into Naho’s huge haul off the bench for me after I stupidly started Megan Rapinoe, who missed out injured. The Japanese forward is undisputedly the top forward option for Seattle right now and should probably be in the running for a spot in your lineup every round until the end of the season.

Of course, success now is all about guessing right with a fleet of double-gamers and a select few single gamers. Unfortunately, none of the teams with two games this round are Seattle or FCKC, meaning you’re probably going to be guessing again in large part in filling out your roster. There aren’t exactly any standout teams to put at #1 either in team rankings this round, meaning you’re going to have to do your fair share of guessing to hit it big this round.

Chris’ Round Fourteen Team Rankings

1. HOU
2. WSH
3. POR
4. SEA
5. FCKC
6. WNY
7. CHI
8. BOS

BYE – SBFC

Houston

Ohai – Will Henderson acquisition open up opportunities for her or cut into her points going forward? Hard to gamble on her until we get an answer.
McCarty – Cooling down after torrid stretch and seems likely to lose points with Henderson coming on board.
Jackson – She clearly makes things happen when she’s on the pitch, but will Waldrum realize it and start her? A sleeper if she starts, and you’ll know with HOU-BOS first match of the round.
Ochs – Best bet defensively if she starts, as she may be played further up the pitch but still think better options out there.
McLeod – Defense looked abysmal against WNY, but she still ended up breaking even. Should be plenty of chances for saves, even if goals against are likely.
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NWSL Fantasy Round Thirteen – Provisional Point Totals

Again, with the official totals on the site not being updated yet, here are my point counts for round thirteen from official league box scores:

Portland

Match One

5.0 – Angerer
-0.5 – Catley
0.5 – Farrelly
5.5 – Heath
6.0 – Huffman
3.0 – Long
-0.5 – Marshall
9.5 – McDonald
9.0 – Morgan
3.0 – Moros
1.0 – Sinclair
4.0 – Van Hollebeke
7.0 – Vero

Match Two

2.0 – Angerer
-0.5 – Catley
-0.5 – Heath
-4.5 – Huffman
8.5 – Long
7.5 – Morgan
3.5 – Sinclair
2.5 – Vero
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W-League: Braddock Road stays in playoff hunt with late comeback win

While some of you were sitting at home Saturday afternoon watching no one score for 120 minutes, a few of us were out watching a barn-burner of a W-League match in a glorious weather: two lead changes, multiple momentum shifts, and, finally, a critical 4-3 win for the Braddock Road Stars Elite over Northeastern Conference rival New Jersey Wildcats.
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