Bubble – UCF, UConn, Memphis, South Florida, Tulsa, Temple, East Carolina
Yes, this league may actually be a one-bid conference if UCF wins the AAC Tournament. Not that UCF’s resume is any great shakes either. The Knights’s best result is a win over #33 RPI Texas, but UCF would probably make it in through sheer competence in a season where it may be in short supply. Otherwise? Uh, good luck. UConn still has a chance to beat UCF this weekend and improve their position markedly, but if they don’t, they’re in deep trouble but could get another shot in the conference tournament. Memphis has had plenty of chances to rack up decent wins but have only managed draws against UConn and Ole Miss. South Florida probably has a decent shot at making it with wins against Texas and Boston College, but they’re going to have to finish strong to stay on the bubble. That goes double for Tulsa who has draws with Oklahoma and UConn but is further out from the bubble and has the terrible Texas twosome left in the league to further drown their RPI. Temple’s probably too far out with not enough results, even if they beat UCF on Thursday, while East Carolina also gets their shot at UCF but would basically need to run the table and win a few games in the AAC Tournament as well.
Bubble – La Salle, Rhode Island, VCU
Bubble (Danger) – George Washington
Well, the RPI says La Salle is good…for now. And that really is, “for now”, as with five teams out of the RPI Top 100 left to play in the regular season, the Explorers’ RPI looks likely to start to drop. What’s worse is the lack of RPI Top 50 results for the club. Will they get the benefit of the doubt if they don’t get the auto bid? I don’t know, but I wouldn’t want to find out if I were them. Rhode Island’s been a nice story but hasn’t even played and RPI Top 50 team, while VCU’s probably hanging around here thanks to it’s really tough non-conference schedule. All three of George Washington’s losses have been to teams in the RPI Top 76. Their best win is against RPI #90 Liberty though, so they aren’t long for this list.
Lock – North Carolina, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Virginia
Bubble – Clemson, Notre Dame, Boston College, Duke
Bubble (Danger) – Wake Forest
Ch-ch-changes. North Carolina and Florida State will be aiming for a #1 seed, while Virginia is trying to make up for lost time, though a #2 seed might be the best they can hope for. Clemson and Notre Dame are both in the clear as well, and the latter has a pretty good case for a national seed if they can move up in the RPI enough. Boston College looks like the prototypical good bad team, with wins over Colgate and…well nobody else really, so BC probably will want to take care of business against struggling NC State and Wake Forest sides before a huge clash at Duke. Duke’s odds plummeted earlier after a draw with Louisville. They probably have to beat Boston College and avoid defeat against one of North Carolina, Virginia, or Florida State to ensure they’re at .500. Wake Forest is alive in only the most technical sense. They’d have to win their final four regular season matches, hope they somehow slide into the ACC Tournament, win their semi-final match, and lose in a shootout in the final to have a chance at an at-large bid. So, yeah, probably not going to happen.