In episode #37 of the WoSo Independent Podcast, Chris (@chris_awk) and Jon (@jonlipsitz) discuss the end of the Boston Breakers and what it means for the league as a whole (1:40). They then go over the dispersal draft (14:15), including Washington’s gutsy trade up and Houston’s baffling picks. Finally, they talk about the ~BIG NEWS, an informal partnership with leading advanced stats and scouting database inStat and the ramifications of said partnership on the podcast and AWK’s coverage of WoSo going forward (1:04:45).
So here’s who Jon and I see getting taken in the dispersal draft, not keeping in mind any potential trades. SBFC have the #1 pick but are a prime contender to trade down given their long, long line of center midfielders. The injuries to Rosie White and Julie King that have them reportedly missing the opening of the 2018 season affect their status in this projection.
Additionally, the rights to Whitney Engen and/or Kyah Simon could be attractive later on in this draft.
1. SBFC – Rose Lavelle – MF
2. WSH – Savannah McCaskill – F
3. SEA – Abby Smith – GK
4. POR – Megan Oyster – D
5. URFC – Margaret Purce – F/D
6. HOU – Allysha Chapman – D/MF
7. CHI – Katie Stengel – F
8. ORL – Angela Salem – MF
9. NC – Ashton Miller – MF
10. NC – Ifeoma Onumonu – F
11. ORL – Christen Westphal – D
12. CHI – Rosie White – F/MF
13. HOU – Julie King – D
14. URFC – Natasha Dowie – F
15. POR – Brooke Elby – D
16. SEA – Morgan Andrews – MF
17. WSH – Elizabeth Wenger – D
18. SBFC – Amanda Frisbie – D
In this episode of the WoSo Independent Podcast, Chris (@chris_awk) and Jon (@jonlipsitz) review the NWSL Draft & all of the big trades surrounding it. Who won the week? Who lost? And how does each team look coming out of Philly?
Plus, hear Chris & Jon’s tentative projection for who’ll be the #1 pick in the 2019 NWSL Draft!
This is through the updated list from late Wednesday night.
1. Andi Sullivan – MF – Stanford
As close to a perfect modern midfielder as it gets from the college ranks as we’ve seen in the past half-decade. Sullivan is the rare hyped youth prospect who doesn’t just meet lofty expectations but exceeds them, having won the Hermann Trophy this past season while leading the Card to a national title. The scary thing is that Sullivan could make another sharp uptick in her first professional season, as she’ll be another year removed from the ACL injury that KO’d her at the end of her junior season. Sullivan was eased back into action this past year before going full tilt as the year moved on. Can fulfill almost any role in the middle of the park, whether it’s shielding a backline, winning possession, distributing, or firing in a cannon blast of a long shot. Sullivan’s the best collegiate draftee since Crystal Dunn and is going to be the cornerstone for some lucky club for years to come.
2. Rebecca Quinn – MF (DMC), D (CB) – Duke
Canadian international finally came good at college level as the Blue Devils’ midfield general in a brilliant season. Primarily used at center-back at international level due to lack of options there but lack of blazing pace, passing range, and ability to score the odd goal makes her a better fit as a tempo setter in central midfield. Can be overmatched by skillful, athletic midfielders at times as she was by Jessie Fleming in the College Cup. Durability a major concern after missing significant time in four straight years up to 2017 but stayed healthy as a senior and flourished. Unlikely to be a superstar but a safe pick who should be a good cog in midfield for someone.
3. Savannah McCaskill – F – South Carolina
Has gone from a moderately touted recruit to one of the best players in SEC history and camps with the full USWNT. Truly established herself as one of the college game’s very best as a junior, netting seventeen goals and adding eleven assists. Goal total was more than cut in half as a senior, with efficiency taking a tumble as well, but some of that might be attributable to a more potent supporting cast in front of goal along with a deeper role centrally at times for the Gamecocks. Excels at opening up space for teammates and work off the ball. Huge leadership intangibles and has made a career of making everyone around her better, helping lead Carolina to the College Cup semi-finals in 2017. Fiercely competitive but has gained a reputation of going down easily in the box. Doesn’t possess ideal size and probably not going to challenge for a Golden Boot at pro level but has the potential to open things up as a can opener in someone’s attack.
As seen on Twitter! Only using players officially declared (as of Wed. afternoon) + Andi Sullivan.
1 – WSH – Andi Sullivan – MF – Stanford
2 – BOS – Rebecca Quinn – MF/D – Duke
3 – WSH – Savannah McCaskill – F – South Carolina
4 – SBFC – Imani Dorsey – F – Duke
5 – SBFC – Schuyler DeBree – D – Duke
6 – HOU – Gabby Seiler – MF – Florida
7 – CHI – Sandra Yu – MF – Notre Dame
8 – POR – Michaela Abam – F – West Virginia
9 – POR – Indigo Gibson – D – Cal
10 – NC – Frannie Crouse – F/MF – Penn State
11 – WSH – Elizabeth Wenger – D – Georgetown
12 – HOU – Taylor Isom – D – BYU
13 – CHI – Kimberly Keever – F/D – Washington
14 – URFC – Ashton Miller – MF – Duke
15 – SBFC – Casey Murphy – GK – Rutgers
16 – WSH – Bri Visalli – MF – Pepperdine
17 – BOS – Simone Charley – F – Vanderbilt
18 – CHI – Emily Boyd – GK – Cal
19 – CHI – Haley Hanson – MF – Nebraska
20 – NC – Zoey Goralski – D – UCLA
It’s 2018 NWSL Draft time. In this very, very long podcast, Chris (@chris_awk) and Jon (@jonlipsitz) talk about their Top 50 and even some other players as well.
For the past years, I’ve published “four factors” rankings looking at top scorers in NCAA Division I, providing an easy reference for goals vs RPI Top 50 & 100 teams, as well as shots per goal and shots on target %. This year, I’ve added in a “fifth” factor, with shots on goal per goal as well.
A reminder that to be eligible for this list, a player has to have scored ten non-penalty goals in 2017 which cuts off a few big prospects from this ranking (McCaskill and Abam most notably). Penalties and penalty attempts don’t count towards the efficiency numbers calculated.
While you can get a glimpse of the full rankings in the attached PDF, here are the rankings of those who have currently declared for the NWSL Draft (out of 72):
#70 – Sophie Cortes – UNLV
#65 – Harriet Withers – Murray State
#63 – Macy Hamblin – Northern Kentucky
#61 – Chloe Williams – Eastern Washington
#57 – Rio Hardy – South Alabama
#51 – Jermaine Seoposenwe – Samford
#49 – Martha Thomas – Charlotte
#48 – Savannah LaRicci – McNeese State
#41 – Alexis Kiehl – Dayton
#36 – Ariela Lewis – Alabama State
#35 – Kendall Ham – Bucknell
#27 – Maddy Williams – Purdue
#18 – Imani Dorsey – Duke
#10 – Morgan Ferrara – UCF
#3 – Kayla Adamek – UCF
And here’s the Top Eight overall:
#1 – Tziarra King – NC State
#2 – Abby Givens – Princeton
#3 – Kayla Adamek – UCF
#4 – Kelsey Turnbow – Santa Clara
#5 – Kayla McCoy – Duke
#6 – Deyna Castellanos – Florida State
#7 – CeCe Kizer – Ole Miss
#8 – Sydney Squires – Minnesota
I wouldn’t use these as any type of “definitive” ranking, as you’ll find some superstars like Catarina Macario some ways down the order in these. But I still think it’s valuable data that can be used as a part of analysis for scouts, coaches, fans, etc. PDF of full rankings is 2017ncaafivefactors. Players highlighted in green are declared for the 2018 NWSL Draft.
It’s more NWSL offseason talk on episode #34 of the WoSo Independent Podcast. In this edition, Chris (@chris_awk) and Jon (@jonlipsitz) examine two more teams heading into the heart of the offseason. First they look at the defending regular season champion North Carolina Courage (1:48). Can they go a third straight season with either a NWSL title or Supporter’s Shield? Where might they be vulnerable? Afterward, they head to the opposite end of the table to discuss the Washington Spirit (32:00). How much will bringing in Andi Sullivan in the draft cure the ills that plagued them last year? Just how much work needs to be done on defense? And are the offensive pieces they have a good fit together? Finally, they spend a minute or two talking about new Sky Blue FC signing Thaisa Moreno (59:35).
It’s episode #33 of the WoSo Independent Podcast, featuring a brief review of the College Cup final and where this year’s Stanford team ranks in the history of women’s college soccer (0:37). Then, Chris (@chris_awk) and Jon (@jonlipsitz) close out the college season by giving their picks for the Hermann Trophy (11:30). They then delve into the NWSL postseason, first talking about the newly christened Salt Lake Royals (22:50) and manager Laura Harvey, who faces a big task to meet big expectations. Finally, they finish with talks about another club with a new manager, the Houston Dash (51:15).
A while back, I came up with the concept of Weighted Total Shot Ratio (WTSR), explained a little bit here and here. I tweeted out some numbers from early conference tournaments before getting overwhelmed, but I finished getting all of the data into my spreadsheet and am posting here in case some of the stat nerds are interested.
A few notes:
1. This covers conference matches only, as comparing otherwise is almost impossible thanks to differing strengths of schedule.
2. I wasn’t able to find data for a small group of schools, which is why some cells are empty on the spreadsheet. Blame the shoddy stat tracking.
3. Apparently, I can’t upload spreadsheet files due to WordPress security, so a PDF is here: