Tier A – Contenders For The Crown
1. Virginia
2. Florida State
3. North Carolina
4. UCLA
5. Virginia Tech
6. Portland
7. Michigan
Tier B – Lingering Doubts
8. Notre Dame
9. Penn State
10. West Virginia
11. Santa Clara
12. Marquette
13. Nebraska
Tier C – Lovably, But Fatally Flawed
14. Stanford
15. Cal
16. Wake Forest
17. Georgetown
18. Denver
19. Texas A&M
20. South Carolina
21. Florida
Tier D – Best of What’s Left
22. UCF
23. Kentucky
24. Texas Tech
25. Louisville
Gimme 2 shots of Jaeger, a shot of Fireball (cuz Im cool with the kids, and a pitcher of coors light. Oh by the way, I’ll take Colorado as an upset seed here. Go Buffs!
Did the bar have a special on Tier A? 🙂 Way too large a list, IMO. To be a contender, in my view, the team needs attacking ability. To my eyes, Florida State and UCLA are primarily counter-attacking teams this year, and I wouldn’t rate highly their chance of getting 6 wins in a row that way. North Carolina can be scoring-challenged, which isn’t good when you need 6 positive results in a row. Additionally, this year, it seems to me that almost all of the good attack-minded teams (except for Virginia) aren’t good enough to break-down the top-tier 4-5-1 teams, but will the draw put them on a collision course? Without seeing the draw, my Tier A would be only one team: Virginia.
I will call you on your assessment of UCLA. Having seen them live 4 times this season and on the tube another 3-4 I would respectfully disagree on the counter philosophy. This team is stacked from the back on up. Complete team starting with one of the top 5 keepers in the country, a very stout Back line and some young talent up top. Probably the roundest team in the country and are my pick to bring home the title. (Yes Virginia is a beast and I fully expect them to be in Cary as well)
I agree that UCLA is load with talent. Heck, I believe they have 22 players with youth national team experience on the roster. I also like that they are playing the ball on the ground more under Cromwell than they have in the past. Overall, there’s a lot to love about the team and really good reasons to like their chances of winning the title. Yet, to my eyes, they have some problems. First, while Abby D is as good as it gets at center-back and Oster works well with her, there is no depth behind them. For example, in the Stanford game, Gabby Miranda was playing center-back at times. She’s a great player, but she’s not a center-back. Second, while she’s also a great attacking player, D. Jenkins is not really suited to play the top of a 4-5-1. Pepperdine’s Williams is closer to an ideal 1-top, IMO, because she can both hold the ball and distribute the ball well. Third, the shot selection by the attacking players has been horrible all year. So, even though the team dominates most opponents, it still winds up as a 1-goal game late in the game. Will these things be a problem in the tournament? I don’t know. I won’t be upset if UCLA wins it all, but I don’t want to watch a UCLA/Florida State final because that would likely be boring.
All very good and valid points. I think you are spot on with the Darian Jenkins evaluation. The cogs in the machine not mentioned are Sam Mewis and Sarah Killion. Both very strong , big aggressive players that control the middle of the field and are huge on set pieces. I also like what they are doing with their outside backs. Caprice Dydasco has wheels and pushes up offensively quite a bit and reminds me a lot of how Stanford used Rachel Quon and Cami Levin. One thing I do know…UCLA has won 110 national titles but the womens soccer wing of the hall of fame is empty. Cromwell and the rest are on a mission
I’d say you have it about right. Except for Wake — unfortunate news there, and they aren’t a Top 25 without their star. And Penn State rated way too highly — should be middle of Tier C. Also, notably, UVA has FSU, Va Tech, and UNC remaining on their schedule, so they are hardly in the clear.
After the top 4, its hard seeing anybody else winning the title. There may be others in Tier A that could get to the F4 (depending on seeding) but odds are loooong on them winning it all. Keep an eye on the B10 teams. The only really “good” win that any of them has is Nebraska’s win over a flawed Denver, the rest of the top B10 profiles are absolutely horrible! But the seeding Committe typically loves the B10 and it would be shocking not to see at least one as a #2/ #3 seed. My early pick is UCLA, they are the most complete side of the Top 4 and should get a nice draw in the west.